{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43ffd5d9-06e5-4672-b9f6-e75bc9b9192c", "symbol": "600518", "name": "Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.856, "architecture_energy": 42.672, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.238, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.34, "rotation_up": 27.35, "upward_expansion": 19.32, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 38.45, "downward_expansion": 66.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.340667, 1.331636, 1.423048, 1.518172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.34, "trend_reference": 1.645, "distance_from_trend": -0.18541, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.942115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310031, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.435275, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.294737, "excess_performance": -0.251533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.18541, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116067, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310031, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047003, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.294737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.676523, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 852406381, "relative_activity": 1.135312, "balance": 0.676523, "dry_up": 1.404449, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086108, "annualized_volatility": 0.288204, "from_high_reference": -0.409692, "from_low_reference": 0.107438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.645, "fair_value_reference": 1.942115, "structural_low": 1.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.028037, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": -0.023509, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.247368, "worst_return": -0.145695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.081632, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.036242, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.269231, "worst_return": -0.228571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032784, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074191, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.21978, "worst_return": -0.304124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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1.638323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.28, "volume": 900715890, "typical_volume": 704695651.6, "trend": 1.723667, "fair_value": 1.957564, "relative_strength": -32.509575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.065919, "energy": 86.162798, "activity_lines": [ 1.294, 1.376909, 1.512952, 1.608172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.35, "volume": 1857010351, "typical_volume": 764544301.2, "trend": 1.704, "fair_value": 1.953462, "relative_strength": -23.726027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.604384, "energy": 66.903431, "activity_lines": [ 1.304667, 1.358182, 1.486952, 1.584065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.33, "volume": 869385395, "typical_volume": 761336117.6, "trend": 1.683333, "fair_value": 1.950128, "relative_strength": -25.107438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.785714, "energy": 63.05812, "activity_lines": [ 1.312, 1.342182, 1.46181, 1.559935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.36, "volume": 639108354, "typical_volume": 754394176.35, "trend": 1.664, "fair_value": 1.945962, "relative_strength": -23.014016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.037567, "energy": 54.090399, "activity_lines": [ 1.334667, 1.336909, 1.442143, 1.539075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.34, "volume": 852406381, "typical_volume": 750812354.1, "trend": 1.645, "fair_value": 1.942115, "relative_strength": -25.435275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.856464, "energy": 42.671907, "activity_lines": [ 1.340667, 1.331636, 1.423048, 1.518172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }