{ "ticker": { "uuid": "440074f0-9f76-4fc2-99f1-c64946537435", "symbol": "LML", "name": "Lincoln Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.008, "architecture_energy": 48.077, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.307, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.63, "rotation_up": 20.21, "upward_expansion": 12.44, "deceleration": 36.7, "rotation_down": 57.05, "downward_expansion": 78.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.010467, 0.011064, 0.011429, 0.011738 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.01255, "distance_from_trend": -0.442231, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.007677, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08823, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.602407, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5625, "excess_performance": -0.626206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.442231, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014825, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08823, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.637224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.396024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.597388, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.388947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36905727, "relative_activity": 4.761923, "balance": 0.388947, "dry_up": 1.989028, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.302198, "annualized_volatility": 1.146862, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 0.4 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.01255, "fair_value_reference": 0.007677, "structural_low": 0.007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.119048, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.112416, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 2.357664, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.233333, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.218203, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.189781, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.1, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.068335, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.0125, "volume": 6317397, "typical_volume": 6564438.6, "trend": 0.012883, "fair_value": 0.007588, "relative_strength": 15.514057, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.218949, "energy": 13.288133, "activity_lines": [ 0.011833, 0.011691, 0.01175, 0.012167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.014, "volume": 6003291, "typical_volume": 6594914.85, "trend": 0.01295, "fair_value": 0.007633, "relative_strength": 28.156352, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.947953, "energy": 13.955783, "activity_lines": [ 0.0126, 0.012118, 0.011967, 0.012239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 12434848, "typical_volume": 6243342.5, "trend": 0.012817, "fair_value": 0.007671, "relative_strength": -2.286565, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.821138, "energy": 14.847689, "activity_lines": [ 0.012167, 0.011945, 0.011893, 0.012113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 36905727, "typical_volume": 7750173.8, "trend": 0.01255, "fair_value": 0.007677, "relative_strength": -39.602407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.007951, "energy": 48.076656, "activity_lines": [ 0.010467, 0.011064, 0.011429, 0.011738 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }