{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4410db2d-9d40-43e8-a25c-33e507022f76", "symbol": "600377", "name": "Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.724, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.674, "architecture_energy": 6.065, "architecture_maturity": 21.351, "architecture_confidence": 83.553, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 73.93, "rotation_up": 42.35, "upward_expansion": 24.59, "deceleration": 42.94, "rotation_down": 24.36, "downward_expansion": 31.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.02, 11.911869, 12.007171, 12.024794 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.86, "trend_reference": 12.010244, "distance_from_trend": -0.01251, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.294285, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.372575, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014131, "excess_performance": 0.029072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01251, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024483, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035324, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119326, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014131, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.710236, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61089165, "relative_activity": 1.399964, "balance": 0.710236, "dry_up": 1.597353, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047673, "annualized_volatility": 0.180841, "from_high_reference": -0.173519, "from_low_reference": 0.05677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.010244, "fair_value_reference": 12.294285, "structural_low": 11.222876, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048486, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.082979, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090463, "worst_return": -0.051898, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.034273, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.045869, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.12202, "worst_return": -0.075944, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.086855, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.085876, "worst_return": -0.087835, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.251616, "energy": 38.079486, "activity_lines": [ 11.693699, 11.931492, 12.020073, 12.02561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.81, "volume": 73915053, "typical_volume": 40854741.1, "trend": 12.014577, "fair_value": 12.229124, "relative_strength": -2.002501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.286848, "energy": 50.053876, "activity_lines": [ 11.730544, 11.883359, 11.996466, 12.011852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.21, "volume": 76574097, "typical_volume": 41948699.15, "trend": 12.016244, "fair_value": 12.252112, "relative_strength": 0.541077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.753969, "energy": 4.970924, "activity_lines": [ 11.916671, 11.915044, 12.01186, 12.02446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.18, "volume": 67231495, "typical_volume": 42732158.65, "trend": 12.018577, "fair_value": 12.274452, "relative_strength": 0.372793, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.184044, "energy": 11.353861, "activity_lines": [ 12.051331, 11.942184, 12.024301, 12.035025 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.86, "volume": 61089165, "typical_volume": 43636234.15, "trend": 12.010244, "fair_value": 12.294285, "relative_strength": -4.372575, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.674134, "energy": 6.064658, "activity_lines": [ 12.02, 11.911869, 12.007171, 12.024794 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }