{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44135f73-0d0f-414c-804a-e073977f6394", "symbol": "UPWK", "name": "Upwork Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.66, "architecture_energy": 58.093, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.027, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.69, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 40.45, "downward_expansion": 61.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.5, 154.871999, 157.635999, 176.841827 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 156.5, "trend_reference": 215.426999, "distance_from_trend": -0.273536, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 255.25, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.386876, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.460571, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.52129, "excess_performance": -0.466623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.273536, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236302, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.386876, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.424606, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037298, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.52129, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.62531, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.62531, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035798, "annualized_volatility": 0.695682, "from_high_reference": -0.602792, "from_low_reference": 0.114593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 215.426999, "fair_value_reference": 255.25, "structural_low": 140.410004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": 0.006603, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.644583, "worst_return": -0.22335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.075145, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.12561, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.784595, "worst_return": -0.285508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006557, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.127244, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.675676, "worst_return": -0.203125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024192, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178344, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169263, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144162, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.363778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.229064, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 236.0, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 12.45, "trend": 235.17967, "fair_value": 569.573027, "relative_strength": -16.10084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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-44.07742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.264231, "energy": 63.513841, "activity_lines": [ 152.536665, 151.770907, 165.379951, 196.603655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 156.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 176.05, "trend": 236.710332, "fair_value": 256.025, "relative_strength": -43.644971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.974289, "energy": 62.815056, "activity_lines": [ 154.242666, 152.427999, 162.359856, 190.963182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 156.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 176.05, "trend": 229.393666, "fair_value": 255.919231, "relative_strength": -42.926501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.524464, "energy": 59.363456, "activity_lines": [ 155.715333, 153.439635, 160.151332, 185.788321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 156.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 174.1, "trend": 222.276999, "fair_value": 255.813461, "relative_strength": -42.955391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.12558, "energy": 58.770729, "activity_lines": [ 156.466667, 154.187635, 158.75438, 181.085504 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 156.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 173.55, "trend": 215.426999, "fair_value": 255.25, "relative_strength": -42.460571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.659836, "energy": 58.093234, "activity_lines": [ 156.5, 154.871999, 157.635999, 176.841827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }