{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44151822-012c-4c90-a5c7-bd58eed8a97b", "symbol": "002866", "name": "Jiangsu Transimage Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.616, "architecture_energy": 76.785, "architecture_maturity": 23.199, "architecture_confidence": 94.887, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.49, "rotation_up": 19.16, "upward_expansion": 18.87, "deceleration": 38.43, "rotation_down": 63.08, "downward_expansion": 92.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.600667, 15.095454, 17.699536, 18.784709 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.43, "trend_reference": 19.592827, "distance_from_trend": -0.212467, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.601148, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123353, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.060047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.183821, "excess_performance": -0.191221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212467, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046996, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123353, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.718853, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.463463, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183821, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.688953, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65232446, "relative_activity": 0.749012, "balance": 0.688953, "dry_up": 0.796265, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134852, "annualized_volatility": 0.619009, "from_high_reference": -0.485667, "from_low_reference": 0.16015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.592827, "fair_value_reference": 17.601148, "structural_low": 13.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.031647, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.000626, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.441791, "worst_return": -0.23031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.069237, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.027155, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.639228, "worst_return": -0.354677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002052, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052257, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.097561, "worst_return": -0.378613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.929639, "energy": 70.812143, "activity_lines": [ 15.853333, 17.516727, 19.982237, 20.203952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.5, "volume": 38025735, "typical_volume": 82766660.65, "trend": 19.897635, "fair_value": 17.830426, "relative_strength": -30.50852, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.730602, "energy": 86.930069, "activity_lines": [ 14.892666, 16.424182, 19.288253, 19.782217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.51, "volume": 100387942, "typical_volume": 85775837.75, "trend": 19.776324, "fair_value": 17.737003, "relative_strength": -30.139911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.525564, "energy": 88.049526, "activity_lines": [ 14.197333, 15.621454, 18.626898, 19.370111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.95, "volume": 73744936, "typical_volume": 87074758.45, "trend": 19.677407, "fair_value": 17.660031, "relative_strength": -21.008507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.721358, "energy": 82.032905, "activity_lines": [ 14.279333, 15.250727, 18.129042, 19.058735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.43, "volume": 65232446, "typical_volume": 87091305.75, "trend": 19.592827, "fair_value": 17.601148, "relative_strength": -22.060047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.615631, "energy": 76.784872, "activity_lines": [ 14.600667, 15.095454, 17.699536, 18.784709 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }