{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4416f502-94c1-4b87-a7bf-89bb6edbcf94", "symbol": "NEW", "name": "Wattana Karnpaet Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.142, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.76, "architecture_energy": 25.134, "architecture_maturity": 63.961, "architecture_confidence": 89.141, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.78, "rotation_up": 26.49, "upward_expansion": 15.6, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 33.15, "downward_expansion": 65.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.866667, 94.854545, 101.342644, 106.334849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 95.0, "trend_reference": 109.101973, "distance_from_trend": -0.129255, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 95.37016, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.003881, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.882793, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000688, "excess_performance": -0.193013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129255, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002403, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.003881, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.356019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293866, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000688, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.266667, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.266667, "dry_up": 3.205128, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129352, "annualized_volatility": 0.842868, "from_high_reference": -0.269231, "from_low_reference": 0.180124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 109.101973, "fair_value_reference": 95.37016, "structural_low": 80.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.060976, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": 0.076545, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.457143, "worst_return": -0.173333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.24, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.197923, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.7, "worst_return": -0.240854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.1, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.201159, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.302329, "worst_return": -0.146341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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130.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40.0, "trend": 108.728127, "fair_value": 96.356934, "relative_strength": 7.104048, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.143835, "energy": 70.123447, "activity_lines": [ 129.359998, 128.467857, 122.91914, 116.459172 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 97.0, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 55.0, "trend": 108.792614, "fair_value": 96.358288, "relative_strength": -20.80961, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.103582, "energy": 36.140015, "activity_lines": [ 118.679999, 122.943018, 121.151569, 115.702519 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 96.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 55.0, "trend": 108.840434, "fair_value": 95.976265, "relative_strength": -22.473702, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -34.993549, "energy": 57.044112, "activity_lines": [ 109.926666, 117.817368, 119.327166, 114.909447 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 120.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 55.0, "trend": 109.671588, "fair_value": 95.796586, "relative_strength": -4.481053, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.984678, "energy": 40.339533, "activity_lines": [ 111.133333, 117.463635, 119.734027, 115.629419 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 101.0, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 65.0, "trend": 109.869409, "fair_value": 95.610685, "relative_strength": -19.858401, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.914253, "energy": 54.922291, "activity_lines": [ 106.566667, 113.727272, 118.212628, 115.069962 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 82.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 65.0, "trend": 109.450563, "fair_value": 95.433931, "relative_strength": -33.265818, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.002327, "energy": 62.250467, "activity_lines": [ 97.766667, 107.125454, 114.901064, 113.304193 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 80.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 60.0, "trend": 108.96505, "fair_value": 95.244358, "relative_strength": -33.176981, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.680759, "energy": 62.760852, "activity_lines": [ 91.466667, 100.994545, 111.458859, 111.436415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 80.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 60.0, "trend": 108.479537, "fair_value": 95.054784, "relative_strength": -35.300614, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.522377, "energy": 84.299764, "activity_lines": [ 86.266667, 95.734545, 108.086013, 109.59996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 105.0, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 75.0, "trend": 108.810691, "fair_value": 95.149999, "relative_strength": -15.485741, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.70212, "energy": 62.495426, "activity_lines": [ 90.3, 95.8, 107.11586, 109.375474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 104.0, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 105.0, "trend": 109.108511, "fair_value": 95.240325, "relative_strength": -16.644642, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.137445, "energy": 50.770909, "activity_lines": [ 95.0, 96.109091, 106.140732, 109.065107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 95.0, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 200.0, "trend": 109.106332, "fair_value": 95.271438, "relative_strength": -23.481362, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.392772, "energy": 32.81405, "activity_lines": [ 96.5, 95.254545, 104.403486, 108.15488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 195.0, "trend": 109.104152, "fair_value": 95.302551, "relative_strength": -22.023542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.043643, "energy": 25.269578, "activity_lines": [ 97.166667, 95.036364, 102.804124, 107.244795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 195.0, "trend": 109.101973, "fair_value": 95.37016, "relative_strength": -20.882793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.760351, "energy": 25.134457, "activity_lines": [ 96.866667, 94.854545, 101.342644, 106.334849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }