{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44213b35-992f-4cd6-b9f2-12c8aa051ccd", "symbol": "292160", "name": "Mirae Asset Tiger KRX300 ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -13.471, "architecture_energy": 31.856, "architecture_maturity": 61.122, "architecture_confidence": 81.656, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.55, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 43.54, "deceleration": 87.67, "rotation_down": 54.86, "downward_expansion": 39.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 46257.558073, 50625.482884, 52080.56715, 49626.482082 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43475.0, "trend_reference": 45785.134636, "distance_from_trend": -0.050456, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23110.764655, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.881158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.107448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.262318, "excess_performance": 0.032489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050456, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.242319, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.881158, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.740608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031074, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032949, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.262318, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.208342, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109862, "relative_activity": 4.631043, "balance": 0.208342, "dry_up": 2.712563, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145039, "annualized_volatility": 0.488722, "from_high_reference": -0.352038, "from_low_reference": 1.236123 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45785.134636, "fair_value_reference": 23110.764655, "structural_low": 33690.178737, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006456, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.004041, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.299338, "worst_return": -0.042634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032911, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017858, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.327365, "worst_return": -0.024048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065878, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034455, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.120271, 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"activity_lines": [ 46257.558073, 50625.482884, 52080.56715, 49626.482082 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }