{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4434265b-2d26-4048-9fd3-cf4a63184714", "symbol": "DAVANGERE", "name": "Davangere Sugar Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.915, "architecture_energy": 69.305, "architecture_maturity": 29.511, "architecture_confidence": 80.791, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.44, "rotation_up": 11.17, "upward_expansion": 13.24, "deceleration": 40.34, "rotation_down": 77.91, "downward_expansion": 91.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.267333, 3.389455, 3.558143, 3.662409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 3.11, "trend_reference": 3.858, "distance_from_trend": -0.193883, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.482849, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.432777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.08142, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.268235, "excess_performance": -0.224526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036223, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.432777, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080076, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268235, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.444187, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23228859, "relative_activity": 0.500936, "balance": 0.444187, "dry_up": 0.945309, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096958, "annualized_volatility": 0.334079, "from_high_reference": -0.434545, "from_low_reference": 0.026403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.858, "fair_value_reference": 5.482849, "structural_low": 3.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02026, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023634, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.091954, "worst_return": -0.071979, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.203539, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.15645, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203539, "worst_return": 0.203539, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.341086, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.310339, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.341086, "worst_return": 0.341086, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132196, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065657, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10199, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133705, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.604425, "energy": 65.992247, "activity_lines": [ 3.561333, 3.665636, 3.72519, 3.823656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.49, "volume": 28008090, "typical_volume": 41613927.5, "trend": 3.924333, "fair_value": 5.534684, "relative_strength": -7.183568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.412189, "energy": 59.236018, "activity_lines": [ 3.532, 3.618727, 3.697429, 3.793656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.42, "volume": 92486239, "typical_volume": 45283668.3, "trend": 3.919667, "fair_value": 5.518541, "relative_strength": -6.915087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.374957, "energy": 48.910887, "activity_lines": [ 3.487333, 3.562545, 3.665762, 3.761118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.18, "volume": 31616046, "typical_volume": 46349143.2, "trend": 3.900333, "fair_value": 5.500825, "relative_strength": -15.636517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.856954, "energy": 59.903124, "activity_lines": [ 3.375333, 3.471273, 3.61381, 3.713398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.11, "volume": 23228859, "typical_volume": 46370891.35, "trend": 3.858, "fair_value": 5.482849, "relative_strength": -18.08142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.915277, "energy": 69.305122, "activity_lines": [ 3.267333, 3.389455, 3.558143, 3.662409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }