{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4436bee2-f828-44b5-94f7-13d311014bdb", "symbol": "002547", "name": "Suzhou Chunxing Precision Mechanical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.131, "architecture_energy": 54.734, "architecture_maturity": 76.732, "architecture_confidence": 82.145, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.47, "rotation_up": 15.69, "upward_expansion": 8.06, "deceleration": 52.0, "rotation_down": 65.49, "downward_expansion": 81.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.386667, 2.497091, 2.786238, 2.981118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.51, "trend_reference": 3.324667, "distance_from_trend": -0.245037, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.119295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.390672, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.825614, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.438479, "excess_performance": -0.445879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.245037, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1795, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.390672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.408256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084774, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.438479, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.860011, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 159703003, "relative_activity": 0.883263, "balance": 0.860011, "dry_up": 1.032296, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160282, "annualized_volatility": 0.623335, "from_high_reference": -0.653793, "from_low_reference": 0.426136 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.324667, "fair_value_reference": 4.119295, "structural_low": 1.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.037406, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.040125, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 1.046196, "worst_return": -0.294618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007645, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01302, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.979339, "worst_return": -0.364653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001949, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.069768, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.807971, "worst_return": -0.438479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"volume": 157711650, "typical_volume": 181727121.95, "trend": 3.396667, "fair_value": 4.132372, "relative_strength": -38.773721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.527955, "energy": 68.179433, "activity_lines": [ 2.348667, 2.547455, 2.833571, 3.038323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.51, "volume": 159703003, "typical_volume": 180810201.8, "trend": 3.324667, "fair_value": 4.119295, "relative_strength": -40.825614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.130752, "energy": 54.734485, "activity_lines": [ 2.386667, 2.497091, 2.786238, 2.981118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }