{ "ticker": { "uuid": "443ea7ba-70b0-4c4e-baa7-a0a613c049a0", "symbol": "UMI", "name": "Umicore SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.367, "architecture_energy": 31.619, "architecture_maturity": 51.392, "architecture_confidence": 68.038, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.69, "rotation_up": 41.44, "upward_expansion": 61.67, "deceleration": 66.14, "rotation_down": 27.51, "downward_expansion": 18.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.814666, 21.420727, 21.496989, 20.587296 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 24.219999, "trend_reference": 19.681929, "distance_from_trend": 0.23057, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.478698, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.564731, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.24669, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.271771, "excess_performance": 0.097524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.23057, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.564731, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182231, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.122467, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089987, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.271771, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.357007, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 494, "relative_activity": 0.585724, "balance": 5.357007, "dry_up": 0.976998, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078797, "annualized_volatility": 0.567039, "from_high_reference": -0.094918, "from_low_reference": 0.933883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.681929, "fair_value_reference": 15.478698, "structural_low": 14.239375, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002542, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035723, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.177285, "worst_return": -0.17269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.083386, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.020057, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.394964, "worst_return": -0.278027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.179456, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.13257, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.334828, "worst_return": -0.229515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.701656, "energy": 27.700206, "activity_lines": [ 21.647999, 22.519273, 20.868217, 20.020749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.9, "volume": 463, "typical_volume": 1771.0, "trend": 19.209842, "fair_value": 15.554231, "relative_strength": -4.880949, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.147695, "energy": 27.237306, "activity_lines": [ 20.944, 22.066909, 20.909439, 20.073509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.120001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1444.95, "trend": 19.285463, "fair_value": 15.517422, "relative_strength": -6.662226, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.790741, "energy": 22.77765, "activity_lines": [ 20.196, 21.411273, 20.866314, 20.067712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.02, "volume": 946, "typical_volume": 1020.7, "trend": 19.37159, "fair_value": 15.488324, "relative_strength": -3.63457, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.999582, "energy": 23.220661, "activity_lines": [ 19.965333, 20.964363, 20.900746, 20.115102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.98, "volume": 1856, "typical_volume": 1033.35, "trend": 19.509406, "fair_value": 15.473732, "relative_strength": 5.425426, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.524337, "energy": 19.614243, "activity_lines": [ 20.557333, 20.952364, 21.105503, 20.283386 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.219999, "volume": 494, "typical_volume": 843.4, "trend": 19.681929, "fair_value": 15.478698, "relative_strength": 12.24669, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.367097, "energy": 31.618748, "activity_lines": [ 21.814666, 21.420727, 21.496989, 20.587296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }