{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4441f9f3-9b9a-4203-82a8-a1a507306b9f", "symbol": "NEWM", "name": "Newmont Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.217, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.46, "architecture_energy": 17.907, "architecture_maturity": 41.895, "architecture_confidence": 90.414, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.46, "rotation_up": 27.38, "upward_expansion": 16.86, "deceleration": 42.61, "rotation_down": 34.17, "downward_expansion": 66.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.205333, 86.033636, 88.544087, 90.734372 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 98.260002, "trend_reference": 93.787653, "distance_from_trend": 0.047686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.800579, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.793047, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.471422, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021176, "excess_performance": -0.153071, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047686, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019395, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.793047, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143232, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054714, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166962, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021176, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.356789, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1816, "relative_activity": 0.436051, "balance": 0.356789, "dry_up": 0.630905, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064856, "annualized_volatility": 0.496346, "from_high_reference": -0.120275, "from_low_reference": 0.716167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.787653, "fair_value_reference": 54.800579, "structural_low": 77.04193, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.014114, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.024868, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.189779, "worst_return": -0.155154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.00911, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.039575, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.364601, "worst_return": -0.16057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.145487, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.00618, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.575177, "worst_return": -0.071019, "sufficient": true }, { 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91.905815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.510002, "volume": 3582, "typical_volume": 5085.55, "trend": 93.650386, "fair_value": 54.086838, "relative_strength": -16.914427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.877245, "energy": 64.60786, "activity_lines": [ 82.839999, 84.752362, 88.730657, 91.241782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.099998, "volume": 1926, "typical_volume": 4695.5, "trend": 93.574469, "fair_value": 54.387814, "relative_strength": -19.394868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.640919, "energy": 66.961794, "activity_lines": [ 82.023999, 83.728363, 87.785012, 90.43208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.260002, "volume": 1816, "typical_volume": 4164.65, "trend": 93.787653, "fair_value": 54.800579, "relative_strength": -5.471422, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.460311, "energy": 17.906735, "activity_lines": [ 87.205333, 86.033636, 88.544087, 90.734372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }