{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4444fd6f-5e02-4d93-90bb-c859d1f7a7a3", "symbol": "5VP", "name": "GDS Global Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.886, "architecture_energy": 28.365, "architecture_maturity": 52.226, "architecture_confidence": 88.878, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.35, "rotation_up": 25.38, "upward_expansion": 14.96, "deceleration": 46.54, "rotation_down": 37.64, "downward_expansion": 64.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.055867, 0.055309, 0.057, 0.058077 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.058, "trend_reference": 0.059933, "distance_from_trend": -0.032258, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.062231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067985, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.537435, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.064516, "excess_performance": -0.219351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094207, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067985, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064321, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064516, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.25363, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1685000, "relative_activity": 0.403569, "balance": 0.25363, "dry_up": 0.155679, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058355, "annualized_volatility": 0.382553, "from_high_reference": -0.408163, "from_low_reference": 0.16 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.059933, "fair_value_reference": 0.062231, "structural_low": 0.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.392857, "median_excess_return": -0.031872, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.514286, "worst_return": -0.169492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.00691, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033161, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.525, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020581, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079697, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.65, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.050847, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.189288, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.742857, "worst_return": -0.461538, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050847, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.218182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.836753, "energy": 80.895743, "activity_lines": [ 0.054267, 0.056691, 0.05831, 0.0596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.05, "volume": 468600, "typical_volume": 4551185.0, "trend": 0.061367, "fair_value": 0.061904, "relative_strength": -34.032506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.116828, "energy": 86.982326, "activity_lines": [ 0.052533, 0.0552, 0.057429, 0.058811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.057, "volume": 246400, "typical_volume": 4483990.0, "trend": 0.060733, "fair_value": 0.062013, "relative_strength": -25.429921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.123198, "energy": 70.721276, "activity_lines": [ 0.053667, 0.055182, 0.057281, 0.058529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.056, "volume": 200000, "typical_volume": 4116565.0, "trend": 0.060267, "fair_value": 0.062115, "relative_strength": -26.723393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.003593, "energy": 46.253286, "activity_lines": [ 0.054533, 0.055036, 0.057033, 0.058224 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.058, "volume": 1685000, "typical_volume": 4175245.0, "trend": 0.059933, "fair_value": 0.062231, "relative_strength": -24.537435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.886022, "energy": 28.364781, "activity_lines": [ 0.055867, 0.055309, 0.057, 0.058077 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }