{ "ticker": { "uuid": "444c1026-4185-4313-8424-2fb746fcfcb3", "symbol": "300521", "name": "AMSKY Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.156, "architecture_energy": 69.827, "architecture_maturity": 45.023, "architecture_confidence": 83.005, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.67, "rotation_up": 10.0, "upward_expansion": 15.35, "deceleration": 37.72, "rotation_down": 73.87, "downward_expansion": 91.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.717333, 23.255273, 24.903524, 26.081032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.48, "trend_reference": 28.045333, "distance_from_trend": -0.162784, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.721162, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.190599, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.117862, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.315252, "excess_performance": -0.322652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162784, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048795, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.190599, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.403636, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191179, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07457, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315252, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.980211, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19689174, "relative_activity": 1.247685, "balance": 0.980211, "dry_up": 1.251254, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153617, "annualized_volatility": 0.527924, "from_high_reference": -0.405419, "from_low_reference": 0.337892 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.045333, "fair_value_reference": 19.721162, "structural_low": 17.549999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.02875, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.047706, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.367937, "worst_return": -0.280028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022287, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.186246, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.326435, "worst_return": -0.263447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.129892, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.141077, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.387648, "worst_return": -0.123496, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.783853, "energy": 35.443235, "activity_lines": [ 26.204, 26.511454, 27.011857, 27.974753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 18666659, "typical_volume": 14968432.6, "trend": 28.721667, "fair_value": 19.559212, "relative_strength": -26.681854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.423532, "energy": 69.796819, "activity_lines": [ 24.144666, 25.388, 26.362286, 27.448602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.129999, "volume": 20863735, "typical_volume": 15048116.3, "trend": 28.483, "fair_value": 19.607954, "relative_strength": -28.795647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.340508, "energy": 78.115761, "activity_lines": [ 22.384666, 24.307091, 25.705571, 26.894301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.610001, "volume": 19762408, "typical_volume": 15358321.7, "trend": 28.212667, "fair_value": 19.658494, "relative_strength": -25.560999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.724324, "energy": 79.283236, "activity_lines": [ 21.368667, 23.477091, 25.145667, 26.386366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.48, "volume": 19689174, "typical_volume": 15780560.6, "trend": 28.045333, "fair_value": 19.721162, "relative_strength": -19.117862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.15589, "energy": 69.827244, "activity_lines": [ 21.717333, 23.255273, 24.903524, 26.081032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }