{ "ticker": { "uuid": "444ea917-ef61-4cb3-a994-5e1cd5168c7a", "symbol": "301032", "name": "Zhejiang Xinchai Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.029, "architecture_energy": 55.874, "architecture_maturity": 50.736, "architecture_confidence": 93.655, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.42, "rotation_up": 22.08, "upward_expansion": 9.42, "deceleration": 58.58, "rotation_down": 55.58, "downward_expansion": 80.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.539333, 9.700909, 10.540062, 11.17756 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.92, "trend_reference": 11.925476, "distance_from_trend": -0.168167, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.395246, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045718, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.618824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.243012, "excess_performance": -0.250412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168167, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069484, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045718, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047498, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243012, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.308933, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19517004, "relative_activity": 1.068291, "balance": 0.308933, "dry_up": 1.060427, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09565, "annualized_volatility": 0.450047, "from_high_reference": -0.372254, "from_low_reference": 0.179548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.925476, "fair_value_reference": 10.395246, "structural_low": 8.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.026443, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047706, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.731783, "worst_return": -0.137931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.091769, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.066987, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.565284, "worst_return": -0.023988, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.142332, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.044476, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.687708, "worst_return": -0.164773, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-69.590356, "energy": 85.085116, "activity_lines": [ 10.019333, 10.536764, 11.403843, 11.875228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.25, "volume": 19265532, "typical_volume": 24329551.05, "trend": 12.175594, "fair_value": 10.382145, "relative_strength": -27.034529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.719031, "energy": 85.399121, "activity_lines": [ 9.738667, 10.192961, 11.135754, 11.680274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.06, "volume": 21839500, "typical_volume": 23049785.7, "trend": 12.075365, "fair_value": 10.383923, "relative_strength": -28.037324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.879155, "energy": 68.053438, "activity_lines": [ 9.479333, 9.885054, 10.871314, 11.479268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.47, "volume": 16871251, "typical_volume": 19093106.5, "trend": 11.991109, "fair_value": 10.388017, "relative_strength": -22.912887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.690479, "energy": 62.729931, "activity_lines": [ 9.437333, 9.721636, 10.673982, 11.31118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.92, "volume": 19517004, "typical_volume": 18269364.25, "trend": 11.925476, "fair_value": 10.395246, "relative_strength": -22.618824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.028712, "energy": 55.873689, "activity_lines": [ 9.539333, 9.700909, 10.540062, 11.17756 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }