{ "ticker": { "uuid": "444f51a4-2d06-4f18-9fe7-65d7cdbabd5f", "symbol": "002276", "name": "Zhejiang Wanma Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.44, "architecture_energy": 62.523, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.169, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.42, "rotation_up": 28.63, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.6, "rotation_down": 50.85, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.011333, 10.10127, 11.005258, 12.026291 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.43, "trend_reference": 13.522505, "distance_from_trend": -0.228693, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.61899, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102332, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.895842, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.373574, "excess_performance": -0.380973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.228693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102332, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328958, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.373574, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.609097, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112720881, "relative_activity": 1.329961, "balance": 0.609097, "dry_up": 1.321095, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083267, "annualized_volatility": 0.369496, "from_high_reference": -0.524829, "from_low_reference": 0.144896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.522505, "fair_value_reference": 11.61899, "structural_low": 9.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.029447, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017071, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.149001, "worst_return": -0.168651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.050057, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.086887, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.193292, "worst_return": -0.288244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072668, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.061236, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.373638, "worst_return": -0.200957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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12.390523, 13.418605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.75, "volume": 111837557, "typical_volume": 93710572.6, "trend": 14.386505, "fair_value": 11.658446, "relative_strength": -42.776354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.02385, "energy": 82.114207, "activity_lines": [ 10.272667, 10.887145, 12.032356, 13.106508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.24, "volume": 92336462, "typical_volume": 90887549.65, "trend": 14.155838, "fair_value": 11.640831, "relative_strength": -39.814247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.450113, "energy": 72.959486, "activity_lines": [ 9.881333, 10.467856, 11.662426, 12.774475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.45, "volume": 116741137, "typical_volume": 86503757.75, "trend": 13.942505, "fair_value": 11.62837, "relative_strength": -38.077913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.664453, "energy": 69.208437, "activity_lines": [ 9.663333, 10.168542, 11.35183, 12.470873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.36, "volume": 126079550, "typical_volume": 85298226.35, "trend": 13.738505, "fair_value": 11.622631, "relative_strength": -30.485022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.028084, "energy": 65.745892, "activity_lines": [ 9.836, 10.105062, 11.16233, 12.239743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.43, "volume": 112720881, "typical_volume": 84755052.75, "trend": 13.522505, "fair_value": 11.61899, "relative_strength": -32.895842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.439679, "energy": 62.522712, "activity_lines": [ 10.011333, 10.10127, 11.005258, 12.026291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }