{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44531704-46d3-4cbc-8e55-e314179061b8", "symbol": "SXLK", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Technology Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.388, "architecture_energy": 43.909, "architecture_maturity": 64.041, "architecture_confidence": 95.26, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.64, "rotation_up": 40.82, "upward_expansion": 70.26, "deceleration": 93.97, "rotation_down": 28.59, "downward_expansion": 10.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 181.114667, 180.429454, 178.659904, 172.125634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 189.419998, "trend_reference": 164.115, "distance_from_trend": 0.154191, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 126.843205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.49334, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.67147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.284552, "excess_performance": 0.233316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.154191, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061141, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.49334, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014135, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.106715, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035952, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.284552, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.809789, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66876, "relative_activity": 0.714192, "balance": 3.809789, "dry_up": 0.977499, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042506, "annualized_volatility": 0.244378, "from_high_reference": -0.003367, "from_low_reference": 0.41316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 164.115, "fair_value_reference": 126.843205, "structural_low": 134.039993, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.001272, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01747, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.111251, "worst_return": -0.115812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.082578, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.033207, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130564, "worst_return": -0.141121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.145665, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.113464, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228306, "worst_return": 0.004665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08384, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.107226, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01887, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013147, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024142, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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11.47047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.971414, "energy": 47.243273, "activity_lines": [ 180.552665, 181.531272, 174.129142, 167.487612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 175.880005, "volume": 63293, "typical_volume": 93696.55, "trend": 161.342, "fair_value": 125.090889, "relative_strength": 6.216762, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.7997, "energy": 36.046303, "activity_lines": [ 178.94, 180.507818, 175.121904, 168.47729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 178.639999, "volume": 201778, "typical_volume": 97598.7, "trend": 162.149666, "fair_value": 125.641674, "relative_strength": 6.333912, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.584557, "energy": 35.657286, "activity_lines": [ 178.571334, 179.991636, 176.232952, 169.59329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 174.860001, "volume": 34180, "typical_volume": 95115.0, "trend": 162.879, "fair_value": 126.1852, "relative_strength": 2.696455, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.383657, "energy": 27.766123, "activity_lines": [ 177.378667, 178.821637, 176.827952, 170.413311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 189.419998, "volume": 66876, "typical_volume": 93638.7, "trend": 164.115, "fair_value": 126.843205, "relative_strength": 10.67147, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.388459, "energy": 43.908561, "activity_lines": [ 181.114667, 180.429454, 178.659904, 172.125634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }