{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4454b907-ec54-4287-8bee-2276b6793cb1", "symbol": "00891", "name": "CTBC Taiwan ESG Leading Semiconductor ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.845, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.695, "architecture_energy": 25.838, "architecture_maturity": 74.949, "architecture_confidence": 89.857, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.58, "rotation_up": 23.31, "upward_expansion": 57.55, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 30.31, "downward_expansion": 21.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.132667, 34.909273, 34.212287, 32.051666 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 34.75, "trend_reference": 28.973709, "distance_from_trend": 0.199363, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.207789, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.019434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.260862, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.581085, "excess_performance": 0.201773, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.199363, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250166, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.019434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157715, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.122609, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062412, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.581085, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.667144, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112098498, "relative_activity": 1.04405, "balance": 0.667144, "dry_up": 0.920564, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072167, "annualized_volatility": 0.361845, "from_high_reference": -0.092689, "from_low_reference": 1.285353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.973709, "fair_value_reference": 17.207789, "structural_low": 21.351953, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01924, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": 0.017254, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.14587, "worst_return": -0.032843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.093397, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023677, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.180693, "worst_return": 0.024578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.173393, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.036442, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.259353, "worst_return": -0.065855, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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27.950732, "fair_value": 16.903659, "relative_strength": 12.259852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.044485, "energy": 44.634253, "activity_lines": [ 34.959333, 35.442545, 33.737993, 31.306559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.200001, "volume": 120576413, "typical_volume": 104744912.1, "trend": 28.450105, "fair_value": 17.050876, "relative_strength": 10.388034, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.989587, "energy": 26.260358, "activity_lines": [ 34.200667, 35.031273, 33.925457, 31.645221 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.75, "volume": 112098498, "typical_volume": 107368894.25, "trend": 28.973709, "fair_value": 17.207789, "relative_strength": 12.260862, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.695319, "energy": 25.838363, "activity_lines": [ 34.132667, 34.909273, 34.212287, 32.051666 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }