{ "ticker": { "uuid": "445d9ab2-0bf6-4612-a185-19688a3afcb1", "symbol": "NZF", "name": "Nuveen Municipal Credit Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.423, "architecture_energy": 15.822, "architecture_maturity": 19.104, "architecture_confidence": 52.385, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.65, "rotation_up": 17.68, "upward_expansion": 20.8, "deceleration": 68.08, "rotation_down": 50.14, "downward_expansion": 32.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.349371, 12.423248, 12.430232, 12.397713 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.46, "trend_reference": 12.35376, "distance_from_trend": 0.0086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.010666, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.13163, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.504184, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006921, "excess_performance": -0.118704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010128, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.13163, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03059, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006921, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.443663, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3591900, "relative_activity": 1.352312, "balance": 0.443663, "dry_up": 1.046377, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018012, "annualized_volatility": 0.106516, "from_high_reference": -0.01692, "from_low_reference": 0.133259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.35376, "fair_value_reference": 11.010666, "structural_low": 11.616859, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.013966, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.013223, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.044483, "worst_return": -0.097669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.024113, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.071503, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.067214, "worst_return": -0.174853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.050833, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.056908, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.089316, "worst_return": -0.252943, "sufficient": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.31485, "energy": 52.371688, "activity_lines": [ 12.563011, 12.526003, 12.441015, 12.39726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.48, "volume": 2569931, "typical_volume": 2618627.25, "trend": 12.33777, "fair_value": 10.956405, "relative_strength": -5.07474, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.341486, "energy": 31.260434, "activity_lines": [ 12.535526, 12.524731, 12.450542, 12.407409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.22, "volume": 2256330, "typical_volume": 2574274.6, "trend": 12.345791, "fair_value": 10.972976, "relative_strength": -6.435105, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.167565, "energy": 11.423929, "activity_lines": [ 12.421482, 12.476733, 12.436001, 12.399811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.2, "volume": 2699036, "typical_volume": 2602044.6, "trend": 12.346726, "fair_value": 10.990778, "relative_strength": -7.432659, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.860443, "energy": 19.260651, "activity_lines": [ 12.327433, 12.425875, 12.420559, 12.390405 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.46, "volume": 3591900, "typical_volume": 2656117.2, "trend": 12.35376, "fair_value": 11.010666, "relative_strength": -8.504184, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.422605, "energy": 15.822161, "activity_lines": [ 12.349371, 12.423248, 12.430232, 12.397713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }