{ "ticker": { "uuid": "445db116-5bf1-4945-a61f-7b77a785a92c", "symbol": "688653", "name": "Kangxi Communication Technologies (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.518, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.719, "architecture_energy": 33.267, "architecture_maturity": 18.415, "architecture_confidence": 47.676, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.68, "rotation_up": 22.19, "upward_expansion": 23.49, "deceleration": 60.07, "rotation_down": 63.81, "downward_expansion": 41.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.454, 13.412, 13.997381, 13.994882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.22, "trend_reference": 13.990333, "distance_from_trend": 0.016416, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.423546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059333, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.829623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015917, "excess_performance": 0.027287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016416, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040122, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059333, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100446, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.058296, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036619, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015917, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.028454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91402289, "relative_activity": 1.803598, "balance": 1.028454, "dry_up": 1.849806, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131938, "annualized_volatility": 0.706442, "from_high_reference": -0.187893, "from_low_reference": 0.395486 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.990333, "fair_value_reference": 13.423546, "structural_low": 10.19, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.00163, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020939, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.00163, "worst_return": -0.00163, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.127139, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.066552, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127139, "worst_return": 0.127139, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.131214, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.095433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131214, "worst_return": 0.131214, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048423, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084006, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02119, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", 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"direction": 66.983127, "energy": 66.431245, "activity_lines": [ 15.848666, 15.408909, 14.862619, 14.530301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.68, "volume": 117991440, "typical_volume": 43204129.2, "trend": 14.010333, "fair_value": 13.454783, "relative_strength": -9.729671, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.19218, "energy": 6.954147, "activity_lines": [ 14.586, 14.747273, 14.603095, 14.378129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.91, "volume": 98310787, "typical_volume": 45967773.6, "trend": 13.968667, "fair_value": 13.436475, "relative_strength": -16.482935, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.095526, "energy": 30.595878, "activity_lines": [ 13.202, 14.014545, 14.285, 14.178107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.83, "volume": 67271581, "typical_volume": 47601207.7, "trend": 13.921333, "fair_value": 13.417857, "relative_strength": -17.142492, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.632677, "energy": 57.757358, "activity_lines": [ 12.090667, 13.358545, 13.97319, 13.975613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.22, "volume": 91402289, "typical_volume": 50677753.45, "trend": 13.990333, "fair_value": 13.423546, "relative_strength": 5.829623, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.719131, "energy": 33.267111, "activity_lines": [ 12.454, 13.412, 13.997381, 13.994882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }