{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4462d582-ffa0-4ad8-8e28-dc0a53589a12", "symbol": "INSM", "name": "Insmed Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.087, "architecture_energy": 9.672, "architecture_maturity": 92.02, "architecture_confidence": 40.574, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.09, "rotation_up": 30.26, "upward_expansion": 20.83, "deceleration": 43.88, "rotation_down": 17.74, "downward_expansion": 54.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 113.527333, 110.081818, 110.877381, 118.210968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 131.1, "trend_reference": 128.849, "distance_from_trend": 0.01747, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 86.312147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.518906, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.173922, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.125184, "excess_performance": -0.312637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01747, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177269, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.518906, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.238173, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221739, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179311, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125184, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.378049, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29678036, "relative_activity": 1.769222, "balance": 1.378049, "dry_up": 0.945303, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096694, "annualized_volatility": 0.717111, "from_high_reference": -0.383784, "from_low_reference": 0.450382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 128.849, "fair_value_reference": 86.312147, "structural_low": 90.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.051059, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.029566, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.090455, "worst_return": -0.214027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.151403, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.070138, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 2.583636, "worst_return": -0.288507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.269259, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.257919, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 2.325, "worst_return": -0.09331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.15577, "energy": 27.189946, "activity_lines": [ 109.426667, 105.880545, 113.185857, 122.211871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 106.92, "volume": 9895859, "typical_volume": 15698895.65, "trend": 132.962, "fair_value": 85.124455, "relative_strength": -33.279653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.944874, "energy": 23.854687, "activity_lines": [ 109.419333, 106.246545, 111.742524, 120.37914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 98.6, "volume": 12307055, "typical_volume": 15920214.85, "trend": 130.344667, "fair_value": 85.615545, "relative_strength": -38.537062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.767821, "energy": 33.148214, "activity_lines": [ 105.897333, 105.140182, 109.664952, 118.162237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 131.1, "volume": 29678036, "typical_volume": 16774625.0, "trend": 128.849, "fair_value": 86.312147, "relative_strength": -22.173922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.086558, "energy": 9.672161, "activity_lines": [ 113.527333, 110.081818, 110.877381, 118.210968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }