{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44636e4f-68c7-452a-a6f2-6cad7c6ba029", "symbol": "HAGA4", "name": "HAGA S/A Ind\u00fastria e Com\u00e9rcio", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.464, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.396, "architecture_energy": 8.63, "architecture_maturity": 17.926, "architecture_confidence": 78.563, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.28, "rotation_up": 26.68, "upward_expansion": 46.7, "deceleration": 77.5, "rotation_down": 34.29, "downward_expansion": 33.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.548667, 1.572727, 1.577095, 1.551269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.51, "trend_reference": 1.487, "distance_from_trend": 0.015467, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.249423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208558, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.094515, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.198413, "excess_performance": 0.255461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015467, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104481, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208558, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134434, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.090945, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028827, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.198413, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.798165, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16600, "relative_activity": 0.245744, "balance": 0.798165, "dry_up": 0.555514, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085583, "annualized_volatility": 0.389085, "from_high_reference": -0.137143, "from_low_reference": 0.49505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.487, "fair_value_reference": 1.249423, "structural_low": 1.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.004925, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.205607, "worst_return": -0.077519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.021301, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.001616, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.317757, "worst_return": -0.155039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018619, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064675, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.288136, "worst_return": -0.224806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.06087, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004042, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.319672, "worst_return": -0.023256, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008264, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116279, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008264, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025424, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055215, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.41, "volume": 143600, "typical_volume": 188730.0, "trend": 1.122333, "fair_value": 1.780192, "relative_strength": 16.831558, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.569627, "energy": 48.380323, 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"direction": 57.261138, "energy": 37.082096, "activity_lines": [ 1.630667, 1.604727, 1.587143, 1.538258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.53, "volume": 47100, "typical_volume": 80010.0, "trend": 1.459, "fair_value": 1.247115, "relative_strength": 9.578175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.553958, "energy": 24.945966, "activity_lines": [ 1.598, 1.592364, 1.584619, 1.543677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.54, "volume": 28500, "typical_volume": 72005.0, "trend": 1.473333, "fair_value": 1.248333, "relative_strength": 7.870183, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.82949, "energy": 14.664776, "activity_lines": [ 1.576667, 1.585091, 1.582714, 1.548903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.51, "volume": 16600, "typical_volume": 67550.0, "trend": 1.487, "fair_value": 1.249423, "relative_strength": 9.094515, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.396085, "energy": 8.629785, "activity_lines": [ 1.548667, 1.572727, 1.577095, 1.551269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }