{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4463c396-60eb-4248-b119-70d0e2ac10cf", "symbol": "300585", "name": "NanJing AoLian AE&EA Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.482, "architecture_energy": 71.423, "architecture_maturity": 18.811, "architecture_confidence": 83.614, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.52, "rotation_up": 9.77, "upward_expansion": 15.82, "deceleration": 37.96, "rotation_down": 72.16, "downward_expansion": 89.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.032, 14.797091, 16.489905, 16.823183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.36, "trend_reference": 17.261, "distance_from_trend": -0.110133, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.539046, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.599813, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120778, "excess_performance": -0.128178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110133, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090042, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011522, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.389731, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.831367, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28873100, "relative_activity": 0.94175, "balance": 0.831367, "dry_up": 0.998147, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134315, "annualized_volatility": 0.555935, "from_high_reference": -0.353535, "from_low_reference": 0.443609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.261, "fair_value_reference": 15.539046, "structural_low": 10.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.028205, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.040638, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.328113, "worst_return": -0.199291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.056526, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.030325, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.821342, "worst_return": -0.333906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.316087, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.241194, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.658713, "worst_return": -0.425544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"activity_lines": [ 17.094, 18.160727, 18.208143, 18.129699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.82, "volume": 22611000, "typical_volume": 30035026.15, "trend": 18.250333, "fair_value": 15.786529, "relative_strength": -25.24621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.928732, "energy": 59.427057, "activity_lines": [ 16.199333, 17.397454, 17.920667, 17.895849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.9, "volume": 23039800, "typical_volume": 29354321.15, "trend": 17.977, "fair_value": 15.725398, "relative_strength": -28.078642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.525901, "energy": 80.806183, "activity_lines": [ 14.946667, 16.370363, 17.466428, 17.550667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.18, "volume": 29523700, "typical_volume": 29487406.15, "trend": 17.627, "fair_value": 15.667777, "relative_strength": -31.913712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.45861, "energy": 84.726936, "activity_lines": [ 13.772, 15.372363, 16.962714, 17.176667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.13, "volume": 40972107, "typical_volume": 30136241.5, "trend": 17.342, "fair_value": 15.601295, "relative_strength": -19.487185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.110705, "energy": 78.878893, "activity_lines": [ 13.63, 14.912363, 16.662238, 16.951054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.36, "volume": 28873100, "typical_volume": 30658991.5, "trend": 17.261, "fair_value": 15.539046, "relative_strength": -16.599813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.482091, "energy": 71.423005, "activity_lines": [ 14.032, 14.797091, 16.489905, 16.823183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }