{ "ticker": { "uuid": "446510af-781c-43c1-b3c5-54178552ff94", "symbol": "300086", "name": "Honz Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.809, "architecture_energy": 34.081, "architecture_maturity": 92.127, "architecture_confidence": 83.687, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.04, "rotation_up": 27.09, "upward_expansion": 16.56, "deceleration": 46.9, "rotation_down": 33.06, "downward_expansion": 61.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.336, 6.256364, 6.516571, 7.00529 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.76, "trend_reference": 7.829667, "distance_from_trend": -0.136617, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.183013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.628941, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.340733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136617, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174463, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143811, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216289, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007984, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.34009, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98624795, "relative_activity": 0.926627, "balance": 0.34009, "dry_up": 1.363867, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099795, "annualized_volatility": 0.460525, "from_high_reference": -0.55497, "from_low_reference": 0.238095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.829667, "fair_value_reference": 6.183013, "structural_low": 5.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.01565, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.003335, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.643939, "worst_return": -0.143075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.019101, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006413, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.749511, "worst_return": -0.197002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.198444, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.674157, "worst_return": -0.34555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056156, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158759, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14433, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170213, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046852, "active": 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197790316, "typical_volume": 100134100.55, "trend": 8.413333, "fair_value": 6.178718, "relative_strength": -26.101454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.213582, "energy": 54.504445, "activity_lines": [ 6.212, 6.269455, 6.757571, 7.380022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.81, "volume": 150293950, "typical_volume": 102518257.2, "trend": 8.239667, "fair_value": 6.176795, "relative_strength": -31.022038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.428263, "energy": 52.67483, "activity_lines": [ 6.099333, 6.154364, 6.618, 7.212065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.28, "volume": 133939073, "typical_volume": 105631555.7, "trend": 8.005333, "fair_value": 6.178269, "relative_strength": -23.842922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.986511, "energy": 42.332317, "activity_lines": [ 6.159333, 6.155091, 6.538857, 7.085634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.76, "volume": 98624795, "typical_volume": 106434160.45, "trend": 7.829667, "fair_value": 6.183013, "relative_strength": -21.628941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.809107, "energy": 34.081427, "activity_lines": [ 6.336, 6.256364, 6.516571, 7.00529 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }