{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4476cef3-b43e-48e1-9193-b540e80da98b", "symbol": "MTRS", "name": "Munters Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 80.258, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.059, "architecture_energy": 10.356, "architecture_maturity": 20.285, "architecture_confidence": 73.616, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.71, "rotation_up": 26.5, "upward_expansion": 18.77, "deceleration": 71.13, "rotation_down": 36.28, "downward_expansion": 34.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 176.079999, 176.161817, 183.496796, 183.257172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 179.899994, "trend_reference": 182.549354, "distance_from_trend": -0.014513, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 165.683456, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085805, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.83003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048857, "excess_performance": -0.110351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014513, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021991, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085805, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224312, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0383, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285067, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.461479, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1733694, "relative_activity": 0.977289, "balance": 0.461479, "dry_up": 1.317451, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099115, "annualized_volatility": 0.485337, "from_high_reference": -0.152215, "from_low_reference": 0.652914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 182.549354, "fair_value_reference": 165.683456, "structural_low": 148.7031, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.060042, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.03533, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.25219, "worst_return": -0.10687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.104227, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.009362, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.291824, "worst_return": -0.190622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.054114, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032241, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181132, "worst_return": -0.072904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 165.130964, "relative_strength": -0.551167, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.630247, "energy": 27.336433, "activity_lines": [ 175.496667, 179.216364, 185.366407, 184.298775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 169.0, "volume": 2714365, "typical_volume": 1760480.05, "trend": 182.130299, "fair_value": 165.360972, "relative_strength": -7.762196, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.811067, "energy": 24.373216, "activity_lines": [ 174.116668, 176.374545, 183.924597, 183.401063 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 179.899994, "volume": 1733694, "typical_volume": 1773983.25, "trend": 182.549354, "fair_value": 165.683456, "relative_strength": -3.83003, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.059283, "energy": 10.35644, "activity_lines": [ 176.079999, 176.161817, 183.496796, 183.257172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }