{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44819d5e-504b-4c4f-ba80-73a3f7fa8f99", "symbol": "M1MC34", "name": "Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.932, "architecture_energy": 67.851, "architecture_maturity": 11.824, "architecture_confidence": 55.392, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.02, "rotation_up": 74.85, "upward_expansion": 64.25, "deceleration": 21.43, "rotation_down": 16.36, "downward_expansion": 22.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.954576, 57.455502, 55.382185, 55.350708 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 60.0, "trend_reference": 55.928159, "distance_from_trend": 0.072805, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 66.190749, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.093529, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.711109, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003296, "excess_performance": 0.060344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072805, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029787, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.093529, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152479, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.315999, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003296, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.047669, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 285664, "relative_activity": 16.466682, "balance": 0.047669, "dry_up": 4.242333, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042706, "annualized_volatility": 0.287779, "from_high_reference": -0.158141, "from_low_reference": 0.217929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.928159, "fair_value_reference": 66.190749, "structural_low": 49.263955, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010468, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039854, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.033529, "worst_return": -0.023224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027631, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.108938, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058615, "worst_return": 0.012801, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.073774, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.023636, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209308, "worst_return": 0.061588, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02383, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013482, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.301338, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083674, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060401, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 56.744506, 55.081452, 54.113765, 54.831189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.25, "volume": 3264, "typical_volume": 3894.0, "trend": 56.0581, "fair_value": 66.134269, "relative_strength": -12.044828, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.883094, "energy": 46.752689, "activity_lines": [ 56.958525, 55.527133, 54.284793, 54.827447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.172501, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 3944.0, "trend": 56.003856, "fair_value": 66.169709, "relative_strength": -7.161557, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.451072, "energy": 64.998229, "activity_lines": [ 58.229385, 56.590581, 54.8505, 55.092892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.0, "volume": 285664, "typical_volume": 17348.0, "trend": 55.928159, "fair_value": 66.190749, "relative_strength": -3.711109, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.931759, "energy": 67.851177, "activity_lines": [ 58.954576, 57.455502, 55.382185, 55.350708 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }