{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44830c16-d271-4d2b-a912-115d132002c0", "symbol": "2596", "name": "ReaLy Development & Construction Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 93.05, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.215, "architecture_energy": 54.448, "architecture_maturity": 8.112, "architecture_confidence": 60.774, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.4, "rotation_up": 67.08, "upward_expansion": 53.01, "deceleration": 18.65, "rotation_down": 15.09, "downward_expansion": 25.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.305049, 30.612736, 29.627187, 29.726939 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.549999, "trend_reference": 30.239628, "distance_from_trend": 0.076402, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.273043, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040832, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.511116, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011251, "excess_performance": -0.452623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076402, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024629, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040832, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148311, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176537, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011251, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.352907, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 238074, "relative_activity": 0.524245, "balance": 1.352907, "dry_up": 0.490074, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053353, "annualized_volatility": 0.24996, "from_high_reference": -0.142589, "from_low_reference": 0.300788 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.239628, "fair_value_reference": 31.273043, "structural_low": 25.023301, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011003, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008132, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.15994, "worst_return": -0.114691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.030713, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.065959, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247222, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.079223, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.080508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233333, "worst_return": -0.12285, "sufficient": false }, { 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"energy": 15.465355, "activity_lines": [ 29.669579, 29.147431, 28.937184, 29.623439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.685438, "volume": 58092, "typical_volume": 461732.05, "trend": 30.766925, "fair_value": 31.036395, "relative_strength": -30.026921, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.063188, "energy": 15.698446, "activity_lines": [ 29.704466, 29.350697, 28.970259, 29.541184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.85, "volume": 242045, "typical_volume": 457978.65, "trend": 30.531375, "fair_value": 31.104862, "relative_strength": -27.983229, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.999915, "energy": 11.210486, "activity_lines": [ 29.768835, 29.538041, 29.025122, 29.482027 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.150002, "volume": 352014, "typical_volume": 454424.0, "trend": 30.372492, "fair_value": 31.188073, "relative_strength": -23.595674, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.224722, "energy": 38.281761, "activity_lines": [ 30.531813, 30.095596, 29.308444, 29.586455 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 32.549999, "volume": 238074, "typical_volume": 454127.7, "trend": 30.239628, "fair_value": 31.273043, "relative_strength": -24.511116, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.215364, "energy": 54.448235, "activity_lines": [ 31.305049, 30.612736, 29.627187, 29.726939 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }