{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44885bb1-27bf-4d65-b85d-0846225be984", "symbol": "TOAK", "name": "TWIN OAK SHORT HORIZON ABSOLUTE RETURN ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.676, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.287, "architecture_energy": 58.644, "architecture_maturity": 55.557, "architecture_confidence": 64.984, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.93, "rotation_up": 70.85, "upward_expansion": 84.99, "deceleration": 59.87, "rotation_down": 14.35, "downward_expansion": 9.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.975, 28.928727, 28.852881, 28.786414 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.975, "trend_reference": 28.693823, "distance_from_trend": 0.009799, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.938109, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037114, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.43441, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017381, "excess_performance": -0.108244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009799, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006546, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037114, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004578, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002827, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017381, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.227612, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16833, "relative_activity": 0.339854, "balance": 7.227612, "dry_up": 1.154036, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003807, "annualized_volatility": 0.00785, "from_high_reference": -0.013113, "from_low_reference": 0.037787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.693823, "fair_value_reference": 27.938109, "structural_low": 28.47, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.002616, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.001941, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.003645, "worst_return": 0.001747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.008242, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.09757, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.008242, "worst_return": 0.008242, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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28.781475, 28.720735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.03, "volume": 62682, "typical_volume": 45904.1, "trend": 28.656323, "fair_value": 27.917527, "relative_strength": -5.633913, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.033214, "energy": 68.155826, "activity_lines": [ 28.938333, 28.884364, 28.810857, 28.74623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.98, "volume": 83658, "typical_volume": 48931.1, "trend": 28.675823, "fair_value": 27.927943, "relative_strength": -6.535302, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.138, "energy": 62.204117, "activity_lines": [ 28.962333, 28.909091, 28.833119, 28.767113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.975, "volume": 16833, "typical_volume": 49530.1, "trend": 28.693823, "fair_value": 27.938109, "relative_strength": -9.43441, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.287002, "energy": 58.644409, "activity_lines": [ 28.975, 28.928727, 28.852881, 28.786414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }