{ "ticker": { "uuid": "448efcb0-aa06-4601-8aea-ab62364a505d", "symbol": "CNP", "name": "CenterPoint Energy Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.645, "architecture_energy": 16.021, "architecture_maturity": 20.963, "architecture_confidence": 64.08, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.26, "rotation_up": 19.19, "upward_expansion": 28.99, "deceleration": 71.65, "rotation_down": 51.28, "downward_expansion": 25.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.336, 42.999091, 42.921837, 42.801421 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 40.68, "trend_reference": 42.346116, "distance_from_trend": -0.039345, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.263028, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.222979, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.520978, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02674, "excess_performance": -0.098885, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039345, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040227, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.222979, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07624, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054075, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02674, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.610371, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39866106, "relative_activity": 1.446126, "balance": 0.610371, "dry_up": 1.235508, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04873, "annualized_volatility": 0.19952, "from_high_reference": -0.101193, "from_low_reference": 0.129612 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.346116, "fair_value_reference": 33.263028, "structural_low": 39.294099, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.020637, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.00092, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.1148, "worst_return": -0.038845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028609, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.03129, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.12802, "worst_return": -0.085537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060011, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.014686, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.266931, "worst_return": -0.088918, 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44.56, "volume": 27675047, "typical_volume": 26209430.4, "trend": 42.115398, "fair_value": 33.076973, "relative_strength": 2.12883, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.293782, "energy": 35.672737, "activity_lines": [ 44.013333, 43.740364, 43.222698, 42.906904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.04, "volume": 35281147, "typical_volume": 26991125.05, "trend": 42.239574, "fair_value": 33.174122, "relative_strength": -4.52188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.729087, "energy": 10.671025, "activity_lines": [ 43.301333, 43.486182, 43.132903, 42.902039 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.68, "volume": 39866106, "typical_volume": 27567518.65, "trend": 42.346116, "fair_value": 33.263028, "relative_strength": -10.520978, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.644997, "energy": 16.021095, "activity_lines": [ 42.336, 42.999091, 42.921837, 42.801421 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }