{ "ticker": { "uuid": "448fc4d2-7750-4b56-84ef-1ee4526d685e", "symbol": "002722", "name": "Wuchan Zhongda Geron Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.605, "architecture_energy": 45.666, "architecture_maturity": 75.373, "architecture_confidence": 68.739, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.58, "rotation_up": 26.26, "upward_expansion": 19.05, "deceleration": 66.84, "rotation_down": 47.47, "downward_expansion": 71.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.252667, 12.188286, 12.931943, 13.512689 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.7, "trend_reference": 14.268541, "distance_from_trend": -0.10993, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.193692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105236, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.249239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.194673, "excess_performance": -0.202073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10993, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073972, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105236, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225476, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192492, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002274, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194673, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.275316, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16717330, "relative_activity": 1.171657, "balance": 0.275316, "dry_up": 1.196234, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066508, "annualized_volatility": 0.268036, "from_high_reference": -0.392054, "from_low_reference": 0.113059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.268541, "fair_value_reference": 14.193692, "structural_low": 11.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.030482, "positive_rate": 0.842105, "directional_follow_through": 0.157895, "median_excess_return": 0.017635, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.222028, "worst_return": -0.06837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.08125, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.042303, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.329734, "worst_return": -0.129048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0547, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.070949, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.380702, "worst_return": -0.195735, 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14.230719, "relative_strength": -32.875172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.69532, "energy": 88.381704, "activity_lines": [ 12.197717, 12.969762, 13.819853, 14.290519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.1, "volume": 15924828, "typical_volume": 14647801.4, "trend": 14.656874, "fair_value": 14.226239, "relative_strength": -30.101593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.217049, "energy": 86.740503, "activity_lines": [ 12.105968, 12.673285, 13.598871, 14.117603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.94, "volume": 17059171, "typical_volume": 14422966.8, "trend": 14.555541, "fair_value": 14.217281, "relative_strength": -23.463098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.890602, "energy": 73.475636, "activity_lines": [ 12.02614, 12.413172, 13.381984, 13.94232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.61, "volume": 19079788, "typical_volume": 14232525.85, "trend": 14.438208, "fair_value": 14.205713, "relative_strength": -25.018234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.630831, "energy": 67.380854, "activity_lines": [ 11.878824, 12.165967, 13.15505, 13.752285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.37, "volume": 15415663, "typical_volume": 14223814.45, "trend": 14.345541, "fair_value": 14.198645, "relative_strength": -18.044712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.907414, "energy": 58.244962, "activity_lines": [ 12.032974, 12.124218, 13.020306, 13.618853 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.7, "volume": 16717330, "typical_volume": 14268106.85, "trend": 14.268541, "fair_value": 14.193692, "relative_strength": -19.249239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.604833, "energy": 45.665844, "activity_lines": [ 12.252667, 12.188286, 12.931943, 13.512689 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }