{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44924010-06c9-481a-9e98-535dfaa38ffd", "symbol": "LIT", "name": "Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.986, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -40.295, "architecture_energy": 74.126, "architecture_maturity": 11.213, "architecture_confidence": 62.938, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.44, "rotation_up": 16.18, "upward_expansion": 26.22, "deceleration": 43.08, "rotation_down": 75.28, "downward_expansion": 67.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 1218.200667, 1259.890057, 1333.676523, 1338.453707 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1242.0, "trend_reference": 1328.569547, "distance_from_trend": -0.06516, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 940.185172, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.355718, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052542, "excess_performance": 0.107209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06516, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033675, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321016, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.361252, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003557, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.316991, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052542, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.138392, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40, "relative_activity": 0.027254, "balance": 0.138392, "dry_up": 0.109699, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050456, "annualized_volatility": 0.322888, "from_high_reference": -0.218471, "from_low_reference": 0.518628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1328.569547, "fair_value_reference": 940.185172, "structural_low": 1162.790039, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.041164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.103984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028494, "worst_return": -0.110822, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.130606, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.230328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.116954, "worst_return": -0.144258, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.015019, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.150885, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197244, "worst_return": -0.167206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -18.686146, "energy": 31.76465, "activity_lines": [ 1331.901562, 1375.034754, 1395.997357, 1369.54106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1189.01001, "volume": 153, "typical_volume": 1492.9, "trend": 1329.063289, "fair_value": 937.403955, "relative_strength": -2.227273, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.519767, "energy": 66.4284, "activity_lines": [ 1275.898535, 1334.330293, 1378.013138, 1360.582893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1200.0, "volume": 110, "typical_volume": 1468.0, "trend": 1328.769548, "fair_value": 938.071262, "relative_strength": -1.355533, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.635765, "energy": 75.581702, "activity_lines": [ 1238.554354, 1302.157775, 1361.594584, 1352.256229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1202.0, "volume": 341, "typical_volume": 1478.95, "trend": 1329.169548, "fair_value": 938.641929, "relative_strength": -2.411447, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.807177, "energy": 75.223718, "activity_lines": [ 1217.467334, 1275.053454, 1345.556982, 1344.077548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1242.0, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 1467.65, "trend": 1328.569547, "fair_value": 940.185172, "relative_strength": 0.355718, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.295404, "energy": 74.125563, "activity_lines": [ 1218.200667, 1259.890057, 1333.676523, 1338.453707 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }