{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4498d7e0-2bd3-4290-994c-4f8081498579", "symbol": "00650L", "name": "Fuh Hwa Daily Hang Seng Leveraged 2X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.016, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.812, "architecture_energy": 25.334, "architecture_maturity": 74.229, "architecture_confidence": 42.688, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.69, "rotation_up": 49.52, "upward_expansion": 30.28, "deceleration": 38.47, "rotation_down": 16.14, "downward_expansion": 50.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.071333, 16.249455, 16.372762, 16.669742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.469999, "trend_reference": 17.205667, "distance_from_trend": 0.015363, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.535513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290679, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.936722, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.122552, "excess_performance": -0.501863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015363, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038861, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.290679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.279367, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026102, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122552, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.852454, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13431197, "relative_activity": 0.638385, "balance": 0.852454, "dry_up": 1.188672, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067897, "annualized_volatility": 0.323438, "from_high_reference": -0.150292, "from_low_reference": 0.294074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.205667, "fair_value_reference": 13.535513, "structural_low": 13.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.031653, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.054385, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.251784, "worst_return": -0.179702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.159108, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.169145, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.391304, "worst_return": -0.295606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.265689, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.160167, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.113166, "worst_return": -0.316729, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.853341, "energy": 57.719401, "activity_lines": [ 15.133333, 15.425455, 16.148572, 16.652301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.67, "volume": 21517460, "typical_volume": 21123981.45, "trend": 17.235667, "fair_value": 13.472372, "relative_strength": -31.709269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.945189, "energy": 28.253516, "activity_lines": [ 15.721333, 15.570364, 16.158572, 16.613634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.870001, "volume": 28753842, "typical_volume": 21489753.6, "trend": 17.234667, "fair_value": 13.508782, "relative_strength": -25.121356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.638439, "energy": 18.204689, "activity_lines": [ 16.602, 15.952, 16.285953, 16.654559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.469999, "volume": 13431197, "typical_volume": 21039343.5, "trend": 17.205667, "fair_value": 13.535513, "relative_strength": -27.936722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.811607, "energy": 25.333639, "activity_lines": [ 17.071333, 16.249455, 16.372762, 16.669742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }