{ "ticker": { "uuid": "449b63ec-d8ee-4334-98df-d7080ec75a45", "symbol": "AGO", "name": "Assured Guaranty Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.634, "architecture_energy": 22.023, "architecture_maturity": 18.664, "architecture_confidence": 54.513, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.11, "rotation_up": 37.04, "upward_expansion": 35.1, "deceleration": 29.84, "rotation_down": 30.1, "downward_expansion": 44.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.075333, 81.172, 79.837661, 80.250884 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 75.43, "trend_reference": 81.216538, "distance_from_trend": -0.071248, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 79.336488, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.049239, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.770404, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.132188, "excess_performance": -0.257813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032456, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.049239, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016407, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187704, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019928, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132188, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.613683, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1811588, "relative_activity": 0.989711, "balance": 2.613683, "dry_up": 0.895062, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054762, "annualized_volatility": 0.239312, "from_high_reference": -0.175816, "from_low_reference": 0.036696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.216538, "fair_value_reference": 79.336488, "structural_low": 72.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.011626, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036736, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052113, "worst_return": -0.028861, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.02662, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.061278, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.039424, "worst_return": 0.013815, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.137643, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.079385, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.394009, "worst_return": -0.118723, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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-10.685947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.990097, "energy": 20.320656, "activity_lines": [ 80.932667, 78.843292, 78.976885, 80.198945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 84.96, "volume": 1480099, "typical_volume": 1831899.35, "trend": 81.994245, "fair_value": 78.888833, "relative_strength": -5.86153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.853864, "energy": 35.860099, "activity_lines": [ 82.684667, 80.204364, 79.462103, 80.380211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 85.36, "volume": 1452332, "typical_volume": 1820197.25, "trend": 81.846501, "fair_value": 79.071034, "relative_strength": -4.621408, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.349643, "energy": 46.085842, "activity_lines": [ 84.003333, 81.451091, 79.987483, 80.597356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.72, "volume": 1809342, "typical_volume": 1830444.25, "trend": 81.673821, "fair_value": 79.220321, "relative_strength": -8.234864, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.502619, "energy": 44.358108, "activity_lines": [ 83.852667, 82.027273, 80.259146, 80.653711 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.43, "volume": 1811588, "typical_volume": 1830421.4, "trend": 81.216538, "fair_value": 79.336488, "relative_strength": -18.770404, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.633691, "energy": 22.022528, "activity_lines": [ 81.075333, 81.172, 79.837661, 80.250884 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }