{ "ticker": { "uuid": "449ca5ac-a679-42a7-ab82-a9172565d7b9", "symbol": "GTN-A", "name": "Gray Television Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.078, "architecture_energy": 51.905, "architecture_maturity": 53.785, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 24.98, "upward_expansion": 7.41, "deceleration": 56.84, "rotation_down": 57.08, "downward_expansion": 83.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.619333, 6.875386, 7.732141, 8.653988 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.88, "trend_reference": 9.910314, "distance_from_trend": -0.406679, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.289789, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.290694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.675942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.573309, "excess_performance": -0.698934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.406679, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071204, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.290694, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.655208, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.466759, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.453843, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.573309, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13975, "relative_activity": 0.853245, "balance": 0.402049, "dry_up": 0.43169, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.25483, "annualized_volatility": 0.709393, "from_high_reference": -0.609771, "from_low_reference": 0.069091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.910314, "fair_value_reference": 8.289789, "structural_low": 5.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.033916, "positive_rate": 0.653846, "directional_follow_through": 0.346154, "median_excess_return": 0.017213, "regime_survival": 0.653846, "best_return": 0.689207, "worst_return": -0.18717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.071565, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.018099, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.428728, "worst_return": -0.344061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058327, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.017315, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.142345, "worst_return": -0.327704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-24", "close": 6.9, "volume": 7482, "typical_volume": 18721.85, "trend": 10.312313, "fair_value": 8.322765, "relative_strength": -35.859646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.556162, "energy": 47.744742, "activity_lines": [ 7.110667, 7.217939, 8.276787, 9.15538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.8, "volume": 4496, "typical_volume": 17892.6, "trend": 10.139261, "fair_value": 8.306378, "relative_strength": -36.838306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.086732, "energy": 46.438129, "activity_lines": [ 7.014667, 7.116867, 8.038791, 8.928779 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.88, "volume": 13975, "typical_volume": 16378.65, "trend": 9.910314, "fair_value": 8.289789, "relative_strength": -46.675942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.077661, "energy": 51.905119, "activity_lines": [ 6.619333, 6.875386, 7.732141, 8.653988 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }