{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44a63a7f-f0c1-4e5f-ba2e-bb5b80b1cb6a", "symbol": "SUPREMEINF", "name": "Supreme Infrastructure India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 61.402, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.948, "architecture_energy": 55.741, "architecture_maturity": 38.394, "architecture_confidence": 88.431, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.48, "rotation_up": 68.18, "upward_expansion": 88.74, "deceleration": 40.93, "rotation_down": 13.28, "downward_expansion": 10.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.285333, 82.745818, 81.210047, 79.689742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 91.360001, "trend_reference": 79.104667, "distance_from_trend": 0.154926, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 85.585513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06747, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.047341, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.121257, "excess_performance": 0.164966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.154926, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030798, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06747, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020822, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060473, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122178, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121257, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.643188, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1715669, "relative_activity": 5.043254, "balance": 3.643188, "dry_up": 3.237116, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099505, "annualized_volatility": 0.566271, "from_high_reference": -0.268007, "from_low_reference": 0.572191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.104667, "fair_value_reference": 85.585513, "structural_low": 58.110001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.029536, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.034336, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.232506, "worst_return": -0.13772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.107004, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.227348, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.320261, "worst_return": -0.311178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.426961, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.352301, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.594771, "worst_return": -0.407039, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.945975, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.76973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.583794, "worst_return": 0.308157, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.311321, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.315388, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.316982, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055659, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108782, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16734, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1186, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023343, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011204, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", 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79.780363, 78.387714, 78.330107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 80.010002, "volume": 328462, "typical_volume": 182748.55, "trend": 79.145, "fair_value": 84.368718, "relative_strength": -8.094147, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.171964, "energy": 5.279123, "activity_lines": [ 79.637334, 79.686, 78.691666, 78.367226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.529999, "volume": 1972313, "typical_volume": 247210.7, "trend": 78.983333, "fair_value": 84.750962, "relative_strength": -2.100581, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.913313, "energy": 19.029508, "activity_lines": [ 80.835333, 80.130727, 79.252809, 78.585613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.629997, "volume": 388505, "typical_volume": 261320.85, "trend": 78.892667, "fair_value": 85.141859, "relative_strength": -2.640547, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.976691, "energy": 26.576245, "activity_lines": [ 82.183332, 80.747272, 79.900571, 78.885398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.360001, "volume": 1715669, "typical_volume": 340190.9, "trend": 79.104667, "fair_value": 85.585513, "relative_strength": 6.047341, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.947796, "energy": 55.740792, "activity_lines": [ 85.285333, 82.745818, 81.210047, 79.689742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }