{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44a9b62f-4af5-49cc-b868-5e230a190753", "symbol": "BTL", "name": "Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.841, "architecture_energy": 67.393, "architecture_maturity": 13.936, "architecture_confidence": 88.784, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.95, "rotation_up": 10.97, "upward_expansion": 14.48, "deceleration": 38.18, "rotation_down": 69.49, "downward_expansion": 87.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.235333, 0.245455, 0.262667, 0.268613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.23, "trend_reference": 0.270333, "distance_from_trend": -0.149199, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.225208, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021277, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.919491, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021277, "excess_performance": -0.084982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149199, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026411, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021277, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.405588, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.386022, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021277, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.188329, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10329025, "relative_activity": 1.0069, "balance": 0.188329, "dry_up": 1.615965, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125418, "annualized_volatility": 0.59022, "from_high_reference": -0.378378, "from_low_reference": 0.095238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.270333, "fair_value_reference": 0.225208, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.026316, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.010861, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.436364, "worst_return": -0.267857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006579, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.006823, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.393939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.101961, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.089692, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.555556, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.163265, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086207, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075472, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { 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"direction": -20.031505, "energy": 45.608705, "activity_lines": [ 0.258, 0.268818, 0.280786, 0.278409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.28, "volume": 4313859, "typical_volume": 8758216.2, "trend": 0.275833, "fair_value": 0.222965, "relative_strength": -0.508442, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.162919, "energy": 38.900845, "activity_lines": [ 0.263667, 0.269182, 0.280524, 0.278688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.25, "volume": 4821131, "typical_volume": 8654295.75, "trend": 0.275167, "fair_value": 0.223606, "relative_strength": -11.189538, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.651593, "energy": 38.893837, "activity_lines": [ 0.259667, 0.264364, 0.277286, 0.277022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.24, "volume": 33006851, "typical_volume": 9971938.5, "trend": 0.273667, "fair_value": 0.224183, "relative_strength": -14.487711, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.985398, "energy": 32.679176, "activity_lines": [ 0.253667, 0.258818, 0.273214, 0.274753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.22, "volume": 18150864, "typical_volume": 10114286.5, "trend": 0.2715, "fair_value": 0.224663, "relative_strength": -23.225157, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.569866, "energy": 58.927344, "activity_lines": [ 0.242, 0.250727, 0.267333, 0.27129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.23, "volume": 10329025, "typical_volume": 10258245.1, "trend": 0.270333, "fair_value": 0.225208, "relative_strength": -21.919491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.840928, "energy": 67.393087, "activity_lines": [ 0.235333, 0.245455, 0.262667, 0.268613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }