{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "44ade1ca-c7ba-4160-894f-ef5ca3b8ecdb",
    "symbol": "GICSAB",
    "name": "Grupo Gicsa S.A.B. de C.V.",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 87.466,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": -5.85,
    "architecture_energy": 32.43,
    "architecture_maturity": 41.196,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.389,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.1,
        "rotation_up": 14.0,
        "upward_expansion": 45.37,
        "deceleration": 81.24,
        "rotation_down": 50.54,
        "downward_expansion": 39.37
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3.324667,
        3.391273,
        3.440952,
        3.348624
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 3.31,
    "trend_reference": 3.211333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.030725,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2.600513,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272826,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 5.681419,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.149306,
    "excess_performance": 0.203972,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030725,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053587,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.272826,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.118753,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056814,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05698,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.149306,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.799935,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 93105,
      "relative_activity": 1.099249,
      "balance": 1.799935,
      "dry_up": 0.457699,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.027888,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.353783,
      "from_high_reference": -0.119681,
      "from_low_reference": 0.408511
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3.211333,
      "fair_value_reference": 2.600513,
      "structural_low": 2.72,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.00104,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -3.3e-05,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.141304,
        "worst_return": -0.098182,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.058689,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.069332,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.081272,
        "worst_return": -0.272727,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.061939,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008211,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.258621,
        "worst_return": -0.276364,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.127907,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.127467,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.413386,
        "worst_return": -0.163636,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.196078,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.169811,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.031621,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.007937,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047244,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.056,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.113333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.108696,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.079365,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.034483,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.044369,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.075676,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.00303,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 301945.0,
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        "activity_lines": [
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          3.021429,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 116824.3,
        "trend": 2.982333,
        "fair_value": 2.515128,
        "relative_strength": 11.379445,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 117711.85,
        "trend": 3.01,
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        "relative_strength": 16.951081,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 72.332632,
        "energy": 89.943459,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 123545.15,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
          3.584667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": 19.122839,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 123393.85,
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        "fair_value": 2.552821,
        "relative_strength": 15.594665,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 13069,
        "typical_volume": 125734.3,
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        "fair_value": 2.568526,
        "relative_strength": 12.9567,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.865994,
        "energy": 52.475512,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.58,
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          3.269914
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 3.5,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 125063.9,
        "trend": 3.138,
        "fair_value": 2.576538,
        "relative_strength": 12.929957,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.976753,
        "energy": 45.030277,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.55,
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          3.430143,
          3.294559
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 3.42,
        "volume": 3640,
        "typical_volume": 124459.45,
        "trend": 3.155333,
        "fair_value": 2.583718,
        "relative_strength": 11.039795,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.891436,
        "energy": 33.458617,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.5,
          3.540545,
          3.444524,
          3.312753
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 3.3,
        "volume": 25277,
        "typical_volume": 87423.55,
        "trend": 3.168667,
        "fair_value": 2.588333,
        "relative_strength": 6.790071,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.133382,
        "energy": 28.632455,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.422,
          3.494,
          3.445,
          3.322086
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 3.3,
        "volume": 967,
        "typical_volume": 87122.1,
        "trend": 3.182333,
        "fair_value": 2.594103,
        "relative_strength": 6.931099,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 14.014857,
        "energy": 32.251191,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.364,
          3.451091,
          3.444,
          3.330559
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3.35,
        "volume": 35717,
        "typical_volume": 80096.4,
        "trend": 3.197667,
        "fair_value": 2.597051,
        "relative_strength": 7.304044,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.83059,
        "energy": 29.691925,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.346,
          3.422545,
          3.445381,
          3.341376
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 3.31,
        "volume": 93105,
        "typical_volume": 84698.7,
        "trend": 3.211333,
        "fair_value": 2.600513,
        "relative_strength": 5.681419,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -5.850163,
        "energy": 32.429511,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.324667,
          3.391273,
          3.440952,
          3.348624
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}