{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44b229a7-c5db-41fa-ba29-38450acf1708", "symbol": "AIAENG", "name": "AIA Engineering Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.014, "architecture_energy": 40.279, "architecture_maturity": 55.011, "architecture_confidence": 66.112, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.81, "rotation_up": 40.48, "upward_expansion": 64.86, "deceleration": 67.93, "rotation_down": 25.94, "downward_expansion": 17.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 4664.766667, 4669.594549, 4492.270498, 4312.867336 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4776.0, "trend_reference": 4121.236686, "distance_from_trend": 0.158875, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3715.726295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285348, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.163775, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.230072, "excess_performance": 0.273781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.158875, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076247, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.285348, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184284, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.251638, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087675, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.230072, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.167429, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 282664, "relative_activity": 1.005394, "balance": 2.167429, "dry_up": 1.069178, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060828, "annualized_volatility": 0.30143, "from_high_reference": -0.027786, "from_low_reference": 0.599739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4121.236686, "fair_value_reference": 3715.726295, "structural_low": 3252.699951, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.029466, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.011125, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.230897, "worst_return": -0.102151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001424, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.018494, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.242138, "worst_return": -0.195526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030021, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.140912, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.376142, "worst_return": -0.274761, "sufficient": false }, 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"2026-07-31", "close": 4591.0, "volume": 316258, "typical_volume": 317294.4, "trend": 4093.826685, "fair_value": 3707.895677, "relative_strength": 22.272078, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.987088, "energy": 39.352947, "activity_lines": [ 4623.4, 4642.038192, 4438.886215, 4268.856154 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4776.0, "volume": 282664, "typical_volume": 281147.4, "trend": 4121.236686, "fair_value": 3715.726295, "relative_strength": 25.163775, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.01447, "energy": 40.278737, "activity_lines": [ 4664.766667, 4669.594549, 4492.270498, 4312.867336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }