{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44b3e209-a225-49a3-9f83-09e99532fcc4", "symbol": "TMUS", "name": "T-Mobile US, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.096, "architecture_energy": 51.928, "architecture_maturity": 44.203, "architecture_confidence": 94.201, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.56, "rotation_up": 23.7, "upward_expansion": 8.42, "deceleration": 47.34, "rotation_down": 54.31, "downward_expansion": 81.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 3089.130664, 3118.621444, 3187.492313, 3288.070987 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3045.0, "trend_reference": 3385.379427, "distance_from_trend": -0.100544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3684.561473, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.173579, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.61665, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.106513, "excess_performance": -0.051846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100544, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.173579, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094923, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063569, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106513, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.7808, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1042, "relative_activity": 1.585635, "balance": 0.7808, "dry_up": 0.585863, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04854, "annualized_volatility": 0.359703, "from_high_reference": -0.365786, "from_low_reference": 0.032203 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3385.379427, "fair_value_reference": 3684.561473, "structural_low": 2950.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.021277, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.015031, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.159752, "worst_return": -0.098521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.047338, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.059358, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.28285, "worst_return": -0.136868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.142983, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.143257, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.186491, "worst_return": -0.147266, "sufficient": true }, { 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3280.993099, 3364.194362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3100.0, "volume": 416, "typical_volume": 628.5, "trend": 3427.903548, "fair_value": 3675.93688, "relative_strength": -19.354665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.905707, "energy": 39.575767, "activity_lines": [ 3192.786654, 3183.663179, 3252.584192, 3342.005113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2951.0, "volume": 76, "typical_volume": 611.5, "trend": 3404.075407, "fair_value": 3679.909911, "relative_strength": -22.964738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.886839, "energy": 47.591956, "activity_lines": [ 3117.395996, 3139.30617, 3213.550571, 3311.237142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3045.0, "volume": 1042, "typical_volume": 657.15, "trend": 3385.379427, "fair_value": 3684.561473, "relative_strength": -19.61665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.096087, "energy": 51.927998, "activity_lines": [ 3089.130664, 3118.621444, 3187.492313, 3288.070987 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }