{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44b539c5-031d-422d-9279-1e7011bc5bbb", "symbol": "EKG", "name": "FIRST TRUST NASDAQ LUX DIGITAL HEALTH SOLUTIONS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.493, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.672, "architecture_energy": 74.669, "architecture_maturity": 14.912, "architecture_confidence": 71.458, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.01, "rotation_up": 72.69, "upward_expansion": 87.38, "deceleration": 52.61, "rotation_down": 14.8, "downward_expansion": 14.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.70408, 19.350253, 18.411498, 17.983504 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.6375, "trend_reference": 17.769427, "distance_from_trend": 0.161405, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.803142, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.012659, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.154545, "excess_performance": -0.032908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161405, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005849, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246712, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000127, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.231604, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154545, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.366649, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2637, "relative_activity": 0.726807, "balance": 1.366649, "dry_up": 1.284039, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039965, "annualized_volatility": 0.279064, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.313252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.769427, "fair_value_reference": 16.803142, "structural_low": 15.7148, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.006985, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.014448, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.07967, "worst_return": -0.101683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017483, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04508, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.052948, "worst_return": -0.138536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004719, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049613, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.094142, "worst_return": -0.071661, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17.6798, "volume": 561, "typical_volume": 2542.2, "trend": 17.75619, "fair_value": 16.723879, "relative_strength": -17.660392, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.650014, "energy": 24.600379, "activity_lines": [ 17.4369, 17.06932, 16.871834, 17.190714 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 18.8991, "volume": 1703, "typical_volume": 2525.15, "trend": 17.72316, "fair_value": 16.729001, "relative_strength": -7.490665, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.439869, "energy": 59.175571, "activity_lines": [ 17.9741, 17.426758, 17.059421, 17.26445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.8522, "volume": 9240, "typical_volume": 2977.65, "trend": 17.7302, "fair_value": 16.744079, "relative_strength": -3.395756, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.128824, "energy": 76.149197, "activity_lines": [ 18.680313, 17.928595, 17.332903, 17.401808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.5803, "volume": 4578, "typical_volume": 3056.05, "trend": 17.740377, "fair_value": 16.751099, "relative_strength": -6.137972, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.681418, "energy": 80.32243, "activity_lines": [ 19.124413, 18.326416, 17.568717, 17.521169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.2796, "volume": 12716, "typical_volume": 3619.4, "trend": 17.745727, "fair_value": 16.758444, "relative_strength": -3.395415, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.895124, "energy": 78.297527, "activity_lines": [ 19.31692, 18.615196, 17.767201, 17.620474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.5746, "volume": 2225, "typical_volume": 3584.75, "trend": 17.722543, "fair_value": 16.760145, "relative_strength": -5.129886, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.843518, "energy": 73.309029, "activity_lines": [ 19.15572, 18.723969, 17.892287, 17.673949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.6276, "volume": 1057, "typical_volume": 3620.5, "trend": 17.744463, "fair_value": 16.776153, "relative_strength": -0.14326, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.399364, "energy": 76.872578, "activity_lines": [ 19.285867, 18.9722, 18.111417, 17.796856 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.6375, "volume": 2637, "typical_volume": 3628.2, "trend": 17.769427, "fair_value": 16.803142, "relative_strength": -0.012659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.672482, "energy": 74.669354, "activity_lines": [ 19.70408, 19.350253, 18.411498, 17.983504 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }