{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44b68029-f56e-46ed-b70a-ef5e685ce9af", "symbol": "CGL", "name": "Castelnau Group Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.928, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.885, "architecture_energy": 33.954, "architecture_maturity": 33.087, "architecture_confidence": 80.566, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.85, "rotation_up": 19.91, "upward_expansion": 3.65, "deceleration": 55.52, "rotation_down": 48.31, "downward_expansion": 74.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.884, 0.887, 0.891274, 0.89928 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.885, "trend_reference": 0.9135, "distance_from_trend": -0.031199, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.854696, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.393279, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078125, "excess_performance": -0.12936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031199, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006975, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035456, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059604, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.690142, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79100, "relative_activity": 0.573642, "balance": 1.690142, "dry_up": 3.369152, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025802, "annualized_volatility": 0.074604, "from_high_reference": -0.098319, "from_low_reference": 0.195946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.9135, "fair_value_reference": 0.854696, "structural_low": 0.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.009242, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.012349, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.104575, "worst_return": -0.08, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.036145, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.063359, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.256579, "worst_return": -0.097826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.075862, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.046657, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.19375, "worst_return": -0.130435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.027864, "energy": 40.124045, "activity_lines": [ 0.891667, 0.893455, 0.89806, 0.908328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.885, "volume": 43349, "typical_volume": 58106.05, "trend": 0.919833, "fair_value": 0.852067, "relative_strength": -5.133753, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.922984, "energy": 39.362795, "activity_lines": [ 0.889, 0.891636, 0.896036, 0.905952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.88, "volume": 590957, "typical_volume": 84053.1, "trend": 0.91775, "fair_value": 0.852933, "relative_strength": -6.756881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.247711, "energy": 43.082469, "activity_lines": [ 0.885333, 0.889182, 0.893869, 0.903382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.885, "volume": 1144894, "typical_volume": 138160.3, "trend": 0.915833, "fair_value": 0.853734, "relative_strength": -7.238644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.167891, "energy": 38.541716, "activity_lines": [ 0.884333, 0.888, 0.892452, 0.901269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.885, "volume": 79100, "typical_volume": 137890.8, "trend": 0.9135, "fair_value": 0.854696, "relative_strength": -7.393279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.885122, "energy": 33.953631, "activity_lines": [ 0.884, 0.887, 0.891274, 0.89928 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }