{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44b7313f-bff2-44ce-bdd7-cb74735027b8", "symbol": "MRNA", "name": "Moderna, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.559, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.843, "architecture_energy": 26.584, "architecture_maturity": 64.775, "architecture_confidence": 90.356, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.62, "rotation_up": 21.54, "upward_expansion": 55.63, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 40.89, "downward_expansion": 23.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1009.370671, 1066.659094, 1007.987956, 972.959142 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1010.0, "trend_reference": 920.531333, "distance_from_trend": 0.097192, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1121.385641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099329, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 34.676963, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.442857, "excess_performance": 0.497524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097192, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241755, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099329, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133244, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.34677, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012235, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.442857, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.609107, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4330, "relative_activity": 1.33319, "balance": 0.609107, "dry_up": 0.686146, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117835, "annualized_volatility": 0.68465, "from_high_reference": -0.304111, "from_low_reference": 1.439614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 920.531333, "fair_value_reference": 1121.385641, "structural_low": 660.809998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.077889, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.052861, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.362229, "worst_return": -0.280383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.349705, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.36183, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067307, "worst_return": -0.477002, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.48373, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.498502, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.443045, "worst_return": -0.595975, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.202454, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.507315, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063559, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149284, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.099927, "energy": 48.147107, "activity_lines": [ 1109.087337, 1082.929641, 1002.793718, 961.74168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 965.0, "volume": 1249, "typical_volume": 3248.3, "trend": 907.398, "fair_value": 1126.24, "relative_strength": 30.181137, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.888347, "energy": 20.279928, "activity_lines": [ 1045.104004, 1072.019822, 1003.314099, 966.339658 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1010.0, "volume": 4330, "typical_volume": 3247.85, "trend": 920.531333, "fair_value": 1121.385641, "relative_strength": 34.676963, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.842963, "energy": 26.583541, "activity_lines": [ 1009.370671, 1066.659094, 1007.987956, 972.959142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }