{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44bc7548-6705-4586-ae9f-338ba8ca017c", "symbol": "VANQ", "name": "Vanquis Banking Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.376, "architecture_energy": 86.348, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.892, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.74, "rotation_up": 16.11, "upward_expansion": 26.0, "deceleration": 28.52, "rotation_down": 74.99, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.166667, 103.987273, 107.984286, 110.055699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 81.5, "trend_reference": 112.946667, "distance_from_trend": -0.27842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 89.430566, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088678, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.002643, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.316275, "excess_performance": -0.36751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.27842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018879, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088678, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28335, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.340026, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.314302, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.316275, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482403, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8193801, "relative_activity": 2.531597, "balance": 0.482403, "dry_up": 2.618746, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109733, "annualized_volatility": 0.649782, "from_high_reference": -0.382576, "from_low_reference": 0.057069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 112.946667, "fair_value_reference": 89.430566, "structural_low": 77.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.015571, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": -0.008405, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.265136, "worst_return": -0.401943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.017564, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.013137, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.422446, "worst_return": -0.361266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068102, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.002517, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.118537, "worst_return": -0.370061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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11.556744, "energy": 19.102293, "activity_lines": [ 116.066667, 113.978182, 113.278095, 114.212043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 116.8, "volume": 1810166, "typical_volume": 2309079.75, "trend": 115.426667, "fair_value": 89.984527, "relative_strength": -4.195498, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.518392, "energy": 22.983559, "activity_lines": [ 116.48, 114.701818, 113.619048, 114.295054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 119.8, "volume": 2301759, "typical_volume": 2092098.45, "trend": 115.42, "fair_value": 89.9312, "relative_strength": -2.977148, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.368444, "energy": 33.829102, "activity_lines": [ 117.586667, 115.923636, 114.258095, 114.577204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.9, "volume": 21597752, "typical_volume": 3063932.3, "trend": 114.063334, "fair_value": 89.643876, "relative_strength": -37.315934, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.533964, "energy": 64.276205, "activity_lines": [ 104.473333, 109.345455, 110.873333, 112.156559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.5, "volume": 8193801, "typical_volume": 3236613.85, "trend": 112.946667, "fair_value": 89.430566, "relative_strength": -34.002643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.376155, "energy": 86.34793, "activity_lines": [ 95.166667, 103.987273, 107.984286, 110.055699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }