{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44bdd64a-52ed-4a87-badb-40819245e2d2", "symbol": "MCB", "name": "McCoy Global Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.712, "architecture_energy": 38.074, "architecture_maturity": 78.225, "architecture_confidence": 88.839, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.1, "rotation_up": 27.38, "upward_expansion": 5.62, "deceleration": 57.41, "rotation_down": 41.4, "downward_expansion": 76.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.194, 2.202, 2.253952, 2.351032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.22, "trend_reference": 2.54, "distance_from_trend": -0.125984, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.523863, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120396, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.799833, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.308411, "excess_performance": -0.428832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125984, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088316, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120396, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125566, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025097, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.308411, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.564704, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 567800, "relative_activity": 1.785843, "balance": 0.564704, "dry_up": 1.424067, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068607, "annualized_volatility": 0.405717, "from_high_reference": -0.431765, "from_low_reference": 0.067308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.54, "fair_value_reference": 2.523863, "structural_low": 2.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.059406, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.032682, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.287355, "worst_return": -0.134146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.100977, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.042313, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.484374, "worst_return": -0.155303, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.453123, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.476423, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.49495, "worst_return": -0.268032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006132, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.437985, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011834, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018248, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165109, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.159091, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.304728, "volume": 119400, "typical_volume": 85465.0, "trend": 1.249472, "fair_value": 0.823587, "relative_strength": 18.406877, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.18, "volume": 347400, "typical_volume": 352065.0, "trend": 2.595, "fair_value": 2.512385, "relative_strength": -31.859754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.718543, "energy": 46.225529, "activity_lines": [ 2.190667, 2.204364, 2.278714, 2.400194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.18, "volume": 326900, "typical_volume": 337745.0, "trend": 2.567, "fair_value": 2.518292, "relative_strength": -30.570563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.858909, "energy": 45.802174, "activity_lines": [ 2.184667, 2.198909, 2.263333, 2.373419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.22, "volume": 567800, "typical_volume": 317945.0, "trend": 2.54, "fair_value": 2.523863, "relative_strength": -30.799833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.712293, "energy": 38.073562, "activity_lines": [ 2.194, 2.202, 2.253952, 2.351032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }