{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44c6c6ae-0c20-4169-bd90-d721bf30a252", "symbol": "DCMNVL", "name": "DCM Nouvelle Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 54.715, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.659, "architecture_energy": 20.494, "architecture_maturity": 48.9, "architecture_confidence": 88.318, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.31, "rotation_up": 30.48, "upward_expansion": 56.08, "deceleration": 86.34, "rotation_down": 28.86, "downward_expansion": 19.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 147.387997, 148.783817, 148.304618, 142.910924 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 156.919998, "trend_reference": 137.44, "distance_from_trend": 0.141735, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 175.845897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107628, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.64028, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.112987, "excess_performance": 0.156696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.141735, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036173, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107628, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006383, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.106403, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03089, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112987, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.471741, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66612, "relative_activity": 1.449163, "balance": 0.471741, "dry_up": 1.022776, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084443, "annualized_volatility": 0.482656, "from_high_reference": -0.130637, "from_low_reference": 0.641423 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 137.44, "fair_value_reference": 175.845897, "structural_low": 95.599998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.031889, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.039888, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.132442, "worst_return": -0.081225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.120672, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.097793, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.286164, "worst_return": -0.108727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.337291, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.376511, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.539797, "worst_return": -0.255906, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00191, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.104578, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084546, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049469, 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"direction": 41.236798, "energy": 23.72932, "activity_lines": [ 150.474665, 152.669817, 144.901761, 140.16258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 150.0, "volume": 21222, "typical_volume": 54568.9, "trend": 136.405667, "fair_value": 175.840321, "relative_strength": 5.323731, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.681993, "energy": 22.058531, "activity_lines": [ 149.743332, 152.003454, 146.185571, 141.09 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 143.529999, "volume": 64655, "typical_volume": 56514.15, "trend": 136.628333, "fair_value": 175.823846, "relative_strength": 3.662748, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.899618, "energy": 18.175176, "activity_lines": [ 147.626665, 150.270545, 146.747999, 141.549634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 137.369995, "volume": 35562, "typical_volume": 47969.25, "trend": 136.561667, "fair_value": 175.754103, "relative_strength": -2.65417, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.602756, "energy": 16.735174, "activity_lines": [ 143.817997, 147.608726, 146.659761, 141.597483 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 156.919998, "volume": 66612, "typical_volume": 45965.85, "trend": 137.44, "fair_value": 175.845897, "relative_strength": 10.64028, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.658882, "energy": 20.494071, "activity_lines": [ 147.387997, 148.783817, 148.304618, 142.910924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }