{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44cce912-382b-4798-8486-75875d195e07", "symbol": "WXAG", "name": "WisdomTree Enhanced Commodity ex-Agriculture UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.916, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.359, "architecture_energy": 32.499, "architecture_maturity": 34.862, "architecture_confidence": 73.342, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.89, "rotation_up": 56.35, "upward_expansion": 58.78, "deceleration": 71.08, "rotation_down": 9.36, "downward_expansion": 15.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.233, 17.943509, 18.243143, 18.205067 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.57, "trend_reference": 17.928533, "distance_from_trend": 0.035779, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.047308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.423282, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.448369, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.167484, "excess_performance": 0.116249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035779, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067995, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.423282, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064484, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193891, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167484, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.092147, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20134, "relative_activity": 0.461824, "balance": 1.092147, "dry_up": 1.109052, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029886, "annualized_volatility": 0.170212, "from_high_reference": -0.089259, "from_low_reference": 0.508775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.928533, "fair_value_reference": 13.047308, "structural_low": 15.612, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000507, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.013515, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.077273, "worst_return": -0.062607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013731, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010938, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.080707, "worst_return": -0.047599, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.044314, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.033184, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164334, "worst_return": -0.051887, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.140011, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.030785, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.246574, "worst_return": 0.033448, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004894, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007186, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0078, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007675, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058041, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011238, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.406988, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016255, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.196, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1605.5, "trend": 11.144667, "fair_value": 11.373299, "relative_strength": 2.828081, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.746367, "energy": 45.139711, 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"relative_strength": 6.716307, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.961163, "energy": 52.985257, "activity_lines": [ 17.502667, 17.802073, 18.265786, 18.091127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.205, "volume": 4372, "typical_volume": 67368.4, "trend": 17.728767, "fair_value": 12.957058, "relative_strength": 6.759814, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.824395, "energy": 17.34954, "activity_lines": [ 17.759467, 17.802982, 18.248357, 18.127796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.193001, "volume": 124622, "typical_volume": 44555.7, "trend": 17.836533, "fair_value": 13.000923, "relative_strength": 5.017081, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.991039, "energy": 10.042507, "activity_lines": [ 17.976067, 17.827746, 18.227953, 18.157746 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.57, "volume": 20134, "typical_volume": 43596.7, "trend": 17.928533, "fair_value": 13.047308, "relative_strength": 6.448369, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.359084, "energy": 32.499161, "activity_lines": [ 18.233, 17.943509, 18.243143, 18.205067 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }