{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44ce11e1-974a-4f05-9b77-24d6dd0a82c5", "symbol": "PIE", "name": "INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT EMERGING MARKETS MOMENTUM ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.705, "architecture_energy": 22.433, "architecture_maturity": 65.445, "architecture_confidence": 91.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.63, "rotation_up": 27.61, "upward_expansion": 56.15, "deceleration": 88.22, "rotation_down": 33.48, "downward_expansion": 19.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.19562, 31.605698, 31.475436, 30.566346 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.515, "trend_reference": 29.28303, "distance_from_trend": 0.11037, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.744116, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.495347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.235063, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.251098, "excess_performance": 0.063644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.11037, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096376, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.495347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03831, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062351, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034277, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.251098, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.37345, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 413874, "relative_activity": 1.051827, "balance": 1.37345, "dry_up": 1.372403, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070272, "annualized_volatility": 0.311579, "from_high_reference": -0.07549, "from_low_reference": 0.495729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.28303, "fair_value_reference": 21.744116, "structural_low": 25.2, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.004625, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.022663, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.180084, "worst_return": -0.071266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.02383, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.027812, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.262272, "worst_return": -0.044758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062789, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.034932, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.282363, "worst_return": -0.078004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 934768, "typical_volume": 358047.05, "trend": 28.620422, "fair_value": 21.502172, "relative_strength": 4.70831, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.288607, "energy": 31.163313, "activity_lines": [ 31.984582, 32.079283, 31.237225, 30.141342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.7501, "volume": 394605, "typical_volume": 364867.25, "trend": 28.833078, "fair_value": 21.576164, "relative_strength": 6.746743, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.284109, "energy": 21.338752, "activity_lines": [ 31.43604, 31.864234, 31.312098, 30.278741 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.8035, "volume": 416810, "typical_volume": 379000.8, "trend": 29.027534, "fair_value": 21.650818, "relative_strength": 2.646298, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.091343, "energy": 17.299408, "activity_lines": [ 30.779593, 31.471916, 31.274479, 30.341349 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.515, "volume": 413874, "typical_volume": 393480.9, "trend": 29.28303, "fair_value": 21.744116, "relative_strength": 6.235063, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.705333, "energy": 22.433203, "activity_lines": [ 31.19562, 31.605698, 31.475436, 30.566346 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }