{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44d3c358-c294-478b-8091-e90870a78214", "symbol": "FDHY", "name": "FIDELITY ENHANCED HIGH YIELD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.105, "architecture_energy": 29.129, "architecture_maturity": 42.718, "architecture_confidence": 56.476, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.38, "rotation_up": 42.3, "upward_expansion": 73.4, "deceleration": 63.38, "rotation_down": 26.06, "downward_expansion": 4.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.83381, 48.818771, 48.775193, 48.663272 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.08, "trend_reference": 48.54028, "distance_from_trend": 0.011119, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.386057, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.105753, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.97761, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014525, "excess_performance": -0.1111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011119, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007893, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.105753, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014525, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.278423, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 373432, "relative_activity": 0.934105, "balance": 1.278423, "dry_up": 0.887406, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0079, "annualized_volatility": 0.040634, "from_high_reference": -0.001752, "from_low_reference": 0.060349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.54028, "fair_value_reference": 44.386057, "structural_low": 47.432003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.005495, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.00673, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.039685, "worst_return": -0.019783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.009867, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.043756, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.047615, "worst_return": -0.014508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.041526, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.06746, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.067616, "worst_return": -0.001103, "sufficient": true }, { 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50.161547, "energy": 30.248641, "activity_lines": [ 48.83045, 48.793504, 48.683561, 48.578526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.825429, "volume": 240729, "typical_volume": 393181.05, "trend": 48.464683, "fair_value": 44.190628, "relative_strength": -6.505254, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.857468, "energy": 26.19043, "activity_lines": [ 48.821522, 48.808223, 48.712214, 48.603992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.546938, "volume": 381093, "typical_volume": 393305.1, "trend": 48.483582, "fair_value": 44.253761, "relative_strength": -6.295423, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.481313, "energy": 15.520169, "activity_lines": [ 48.725239, 48.770228, 48.712722, 48.609299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.75, "volume": 423798, "typical_volume": 392944.05, "trend": 48.509839, "fair_value": 44.318728, "relative_strength": -6.674133, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.538598, "energy": 14.652907, "activity_lines": [ 48.725359, 48.765483, 48.730772, 48.626487 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.08, "volume": 373432, "typical_volume": 399775.15, "trend": 48.54028, "fair_value": 44.386057, "relative_strength": -8.97761, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.105494, "energy": 29.128689, "activity_lines": [ 48.83381, 48.818771, 48.775193, 48.663272 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }