{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44d52732-d446-4d20-8056-a532a91a599f", "symbol": "AGCO", "name": "AGCO Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.488, "architecture_energy": 63.222, "architecture_maturity": 12.87, "architecture_confidence": 89.164, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.96, "rotation_up": 17.81, "upward_expansion": 20.22, "deceleration": 29.28, "rotation_down": 63.38, "downward_expansion": 81.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.202666, 97.827999, 98.713203, 99.803192 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 89.879997, "trend_reference": 101.087701, "distance_from_trend": -0.110871, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 93.116838, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.568857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.176513, "excess_performance": -0.350759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110871, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028017, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034761, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111736, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245689, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176513, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.077899, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43, "relative_activity": 0.571049, "balance": 0.077899, "dry_up": 0.418327, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061376, "annualized_volatility": 0.357864, "from_high_reference": -0.250928, "from_low_reference": 0.039303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.087701, "fair_value_reference": 93.116838, "structural_low": 88.779999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.254295, "energy": 16.809694, "activity_lines": [ 101.371334, 100.521273, 100.136231, 100.977452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 166.1, "trend": 101.326587, "fair_value": 93.188351, "relative_strength": -9.979255, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.39953, "energy": 32.909263, "activity_lines": [ 102.866668, 101.614182, 100.656034, 101.299567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.559998, "volume": 83, "typical_volume": 74.65, "trend": 101.307227, "fair_value": 93.150556, "relative_strength": -23.107462, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.406794, "energy": 36.81648, "activity_lines": [ 98.516667, 99.625091, 99.636693, 100.540432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.879997, "volume": 43, "typical_volume": 75.3, "trend": 101.087701, "fair_value": 93.116838, "relative_strength": -24.568857, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.488388, "energy": 63.221954, "activity_lines": [ 95.202666, 97.827999, 98.713203, 99.803192 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }