{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44d81699-08e3-425e-b612-6e02da5f3092", "symbol": "002769", "name": "Guangdong Prolto Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.0, "architecture_energy": 63.346, "architecture_maturity": 97.23, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 29.09, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.91, "rotation_down": 53.65, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.576667, 6.671091, 7.455817, 8.326286 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.89, "trend_reference": 9.511804, "distance_from_trend": -0.275637, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.98868, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13753, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.545961, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.420034, "excess_performance": -0.427433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.275637, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131194, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13753, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.375048, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.31546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135799, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.420034, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.258344, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30829450, "relative_activity": 0.847491, "balance": 0.258344, "dry_up": 0.966719, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10126, "annualized_volatility": 0.365168, "from_high_reference": -0.544613, "from_low_reference": 0.175768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.511804, "fair_value_reference": 7.98868, "structural_low": 5.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.031581, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.038313, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.312634, "worst_return": -0.155121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.181604, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.128271, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.394251, "worst_return": -0.22943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.183152, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.22312, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.478439, "worst_return": 0.042827, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -40.757608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.796999, "energy": 91.425173, "activity_lines": [ 6.785333, 7.273243, 8.366467, 9.213913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.37, "volume": 39491150, "typical_volume": 39876128.5, "trend": 10.016471, "fair_value": 8.026501, "relative_strength": -35.582513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.229503, "energy": 87.780459, "activity_lines": [ 6.588, 7.014001, 8.088543, 8.964527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.11, "volume": 37544250, "typical_volume": 38859291.8, "trend": 9.862471, "fair_value": 8.012206, "relative_strength": -37.927844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.269736, "energy": 82.907445, "activity_lines": [ 6.384667, 6.77366, 7.812095, 8.712497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.66, "volume": 32801748, "typical_volume": 38616853.0, "trend": 9.673804, "fair_value": 7.999449, "relative_strength": -30.829539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.595828, "energy": 66.612639, "activity_lines": [ 6.444, 6.68535, 7.612265, 8.505886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.89, "volume": 30829450, "typical_volume": 36377311.75, "trend": 9.511804, "fair_value": 7.98868, "relative_strength": -31.545961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.000459, "energy": 63.346104, "activity_lines": [ 6.576667, 6.671091, 7.455817, 8.326286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }