{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44e27677-5ac7-4ba5-8973-e6c0bc216f2d", "symbol": "UE25", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI US Liquid Corp Sustainable UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.069, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -89.406, "architecture_energy": 92.725, "architecture_maturity": 8.803, "architecture_confidence": 73.661, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.48, "rotation_up": 8.1, "upward_expansion": 20.94, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 87.94, "downward_expansion": 98.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.405182, 12.536191, 12.658045, 12.691391 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 12.26, "trend_reference": 12.705189, "distance_from_trend": -0.03504, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.596699, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.010249, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021392, "excess_performance": -0.10817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03504, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026729, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0425, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051956, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021392, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.968756, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 153, "relative_activity": 0.074458, "balance": 0.968756, "dry_up": 0.356595, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011519, "annualized_volatility": 0.07295, "from_high_reference": -0.067752, "from_low_reference": 0.000898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.705189, "fair_value_reference": 12.596699, "structural_low": 12.249, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003296, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005346, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.025184, "worst_return": -0.048698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.03846, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.035602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015622, "worst_return": -0.060433, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002172, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075955, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015284, "worst_return": -0.031621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009014, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010244, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019225, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001712, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005059, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024801, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018055, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 11.842455, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2700.0, "trend": 11.845081, "fair_value": 12.490865, "relative_strength": -3.737611, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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"relative_strength": -10.976529, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.130721, "energy": 38.148586, "activity_lines": [ 12.696527, 12.789752, 12.782406, 12.768999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.58299, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 5412.25, "trend": 12.738408, "fair_value": 12.583759, "relative_strength": -11.246463, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.861313, "energy": 48.055535, "activity_lines": [ 12.622971, 12.747126, 12.763408, 12.758803 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.485424, "volume": 831, "typical_volume": 2897.4, "trend": 12.732544, "fair_value": 12.589117, "relative_strength": -12.554014, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.819883, "energy": 76.547954, "activity_lines": [ 12.554761, 12.68918, 12.736452, 12.742482 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.398, "volume": 1946, "typical_volume": 2144.7, "trend": 12.717358, "fair_value": 12.593927, "relative_strength": -13.295691, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.895554, "energy": 77.898864, "activity_lines": [ 12.495114, 12.621022, 12.702901, 12.720898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 12.26, "volume": 153, "typical_volume": 2054.85, "trend": 12.705189, "fair_value": 12.596699, "relative_strength": -13.010249, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.406089, "energy": 92.724588, "activity_lines": [ 12.405182, 12.536191, 12.658045, 12.691391 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }